click on picture to view larger
The Global Spread of Malaria in a Future, Warmer World
D. J. Rogers, and S. E. Randolph
in
Science 8 September 2000: Vol. 289. no. 5485, pp. 1763 – 1766
The frequent warnings that global climate change will allow falciparum malaria to spread into northern latitudes, including Europe and large parts of the United States, are based on biological transmission models driven principally by temperature. These models were assessed for their value in predicting present, and therefore future, malaria distribution. In an alternative statistical approach, the recorded present-day global distribution of falciparum malaria was used to establish the current multivariate climatic constraints. These results were applied to future climate scenarios to predict future distributions, which showed remarkably few changes, even under the most extreme scenarios.
Site Search Tags: climate+change, epidemiology, disease+ecology, malaria, Science+mag
click logo for Grassroots Science projects. Join us
NHS Blog Doctor: A candid look at health care
An interesting blog from the UK provides another post with bird flu and malaria. He is writing of the existing malarial mortality and morbidity. I use this map here to get people out of their complacency to consider that our lives are changing and we need to get busy to stay ahead. 50 years isn’t all that futuristic.
http://nhsblogdoc.blogspot.com/2006/04/bird-flu-and-middle-class.html