Overhead Vs

I thought I might have heard geese earlier this week, but definitely today a large V of what sounded like white-front geese flew over. Probably looking for a melted spot of snow to land; summer visitors but it still barely gets (up) to freezing.

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Better to be sick of preparing than unprepared for sickness

April 30, 2006, from the Detroit Free Press editors
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ article?AID=/20060430/OPINION01/604300306/1069

…
Don’t panic. But do pay attention. Bird flu may never transform into a human-borne illness, let alone a worldwide pandemic — but if it does, knowledge and preparation will make the difference between hard times and outright catastrophe.

…But bird flu has the world’s attention, because it has had a 55% mortality rate. It is “a very impressive disease,” Eden Wells, Michigan’s influenza epidemiologist, said last week.

The toll on birds has been phenomenal — 200 million killed, the United Nations estimates. Since the start of the year, the virus has spread to birds in 30 more countries, from a count of 15 at the end of 2005. It is a question of when, not if, migrating birds will carry it to North America.

So this is a threat well worth preparing for. Even if this strain of bird flu, H5N1, never transforms so it can spread from human to human, someday some virus will. Many health experts suggest a global pandemic is overdue. Just imagine coping with:

# 40% absenteeism rates. This is based on 25% of workers getting sick — comparable to the rate in the 1918 flu pandemic — and another 15% staying home to care for ill family members or just too scared to leave the house….

The state needs to get more insistent that local health and safety officials pull their plans together, with broad networking among businesses, schools and community organizations as well. People should know so much about bird flu plans that they’re bored with all the talk, but ready for the changes a pandemic would entail. Better to be sick of preparing than unprepared for sickness.

Where is …. nearest US capitol

Several years ago I ran across http://www.indo.com/distance/ which computes the distance quickly between any two points on earth. I looked for a long time to find something similar to get the great circle distances. I stumbled across great circle maps when a lecturer at the Univ of Auckland. It was amazing to me (and especially to my college students) just how far away “home” (the UK) was and how close “exotic” places were (Indonesia, Asia, Antarctica). It also turned out that the other side of the world from Wellington NZ was Madrid Spain.

Anyway–I finally located this site. It doesn’t work by listing everything within a certain radius, but at least one can draw a radius and see what is nearby.

400 and 1000 miles from Bethel. Where else in the US can one be a 1000 miles from the nearest state capitol?

http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/index.html

GPS Visualizer is a free, easy-to-use online utility that creates maps and profiles from GPS data (tracks and waypoints), street addresses, or simple coordinates. Use it to see where you’ve been, plan where you’re going, or visualize geographic data (business locations, events, customers, real estate, etc.).

Distance between Bethel, Alaska, United States and Juneau, Alaska, United States, as the crow flies:

977 miles (1572 km) (849 nautical miles)

Initial heading from Bethel to Juneau: east (87.5 degrees)
Initial heading from Juneau to Bethel: west-northwest (291.4 degrees)
http://www.indo.com/distance/

Journal Science — State of Influenza

The State of Influenza
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/312/5772/379

The rapid spread of H5N1 avian influenza has raised global concern about the prospect of a human influenza pandemic, and preparing for such a crisis poses a great challenge to both scientists and policy makers. In a special section of the 21 Apr 2006 issue, Science examined the current picture of influenza, including News reports on antivirals and vaccines, Review and Perspective articles on flu transmission and prevention, and an Editorial underscoring the need for faster and more robust tests to diagnose infection. Three new research papers looked at how seasonal flu epidemics spread and how aspects of H5N1 virus biology may contribute to infection and transmissibility. A special online portal ( http://www.sciencemag.org/marketing/influenza/ ) offered access to previous Science articles that provide additional perspective on the flu crisis, as well as three articles from the Science Classic archive dating from 1918 and 1919 that provide contemporary thoughts on the great 1918 flu pandemic. Finally, a special podcast devoted to influenza featured interviews with Science News writers and scientists on topics related to the special section ( http://www.sciencemag.org/about/podcast.dtl ).

I believe that most articles will be publicly (non-member) accessible.

Getting Results from Your Experts

I put this list together for the USDA Natural Resources & Conservation Service in 2002 from my earlier handouts. It is a listing of references I recommend to communities and other professionals concerned with public involvement. This isn’t a comprehensive (nor especially up to date) listing of references but includes books and websites I have found to be especially useful for myself and others. Books are listed first, then websites. The Internet sites also have training available. The FHWA (Federal Highway Administration) course is very good.

Public involvement, as a public governance process, has evolved within the highway and risk (environmental health) contexts especially as a requirement of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). However, much of the fundamental research developed within applied anthropology, usually within a health, appropriate technology, or nutrition context. “Expert systems” and now “accessibility” re: WWW sites, are other areas to look to for additional information.

I’ve put asterisks next to names in the risk communication field who will have other articles and books. The titles in BOLD are especially useful to communities. Too often when an institution or agency speaks about “stakeholders” they mean they hold the stake while the community is stucked the recipient.

Strike-throughs indicate broken links. I’ll fix them.
===========================================
Hance, Billie Jo, Caron Chess*, and Peter M. Sandman
1989 Improving Dialogue with Communities: A Risk Communication Manual for Government. NJ Dept of Environmental Protection.
[*Sandman was mentioned here http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/03/21/h5n1-risk-sandman/]

Legator*, Marvin S. and Sabrina F. Strawn, eds.
1993 Chemical Alert! A Community Action Handbook. Austin University of Texas Press.

Miller, Ellen G. and Elmer Ronnebaum http://www.krwa.net/store/store.htm
1998 Getting Results from your Experts Engineers, Attorneys, and More. Seneca, KS Kansas Rural Water Association Kansas Rural Water Association $12.50

Miller, Ellen G.
1997 Customers and You: Practical Communications for Small Systems. Seneca, KS Kansas Rural Water Association.

Metge, Joan and Patricia Kinloch
1978 Talking Past Each Other. Wellington Victoria University Press. [Maori, Pakeha, Samoa community]

van Willigen, John, Barbara Rylko-Bauer, and Ann McElroy*, eds.
1989 Making Our Research Useful: Case Studies in the Utilization of Anthropological Knowledge. Boulder Westview Press. [McElroy was also recommended here http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/04/13/medical-anthropology-in-ecological-perspective/

Wulff, Robert M. and Shirley J. Fiske, eds.
1987 Anthropological Praxis: Translating Knowledge into Action. Boulder Westview Press.

Johnson, Branden B. and Vincent T. Covello*, eds.
1987 The Social and Cultural Construction of Risk Essays on Risk Selection and Perception. Dordrecht D. Reidel Publishing Company.

Pelto, Pertti J. and Gretel H. Pelto
1978 Anthropological Research: the Structure of Inquiry. 2nd ed. Cambridge Cambridge University Press.

Meyer, Mary A. and Jane M. Booker
1991 Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement: a Practical Guide. London Academic Press.
# Publisher: Society for Industrial & Applied Mathematics; New Ed edition (May 3, 2001) # ISBN-10: 0898714745, # ISBN-13: 978-0898714746

National Highway Institute
1991 Improving the Effectiveness of Public Meetings and Hearings. rev. ed. US DOT FHWA-HI-91-006. [This is a companion to the workshops, available from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The workshop is (or was) available to any group.]
————————————————————

Improving the Effectiveness of Public Meetings and Hearings
A training course offered by the National Highway Institute and the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Sponsored upon request. This 2 1/2 day workshop emphasizes practical techniques and processes for organizing and conducting public meetings and hearings. You’ll learn about formats for small public meetings as well as large ones; characteristics of effective visual aids; methods for dealing with stressful situations during meetings; evaluation techniques; new technology and how to link public meetings to decision-making. For more information, contact FHWA

Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy
1977 Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in the Arctic. Sustainable Development and Utilization, Finnish Ministry of the Environment. [ http://www.vyh.fi/fei/intercoo/arctic/index.htm See listing here Manuals Available to Assist Communities with Solid Waste Planning and Education corrected link]

===========================================
World-Wide Web references

##
International Association for Public Participation (IAP2) Home Page
http//www.iap2.com/index.html

IAP2 is an association of members who seek to promote and improve the practice of public participation in relation to individuals, governments, institutions, and other entities that effect the public interest in nations throughout the world. IAP2 carries out its mission by organizing and conducting activities to Serve the learning needs of members through events, publications, and communication technology; Advocate for public participation throughout the world; Promote a results- oriented research agenda and use research to support educational and advocacy goals; Provide technical assistance to improve public participation.

##
Connor is a consultant (for hire) and I’ve not read his books, but his earlier website info had lots of good approaches.

Connor Development Services Ltd. or Public Participation Around the World
Public Participation or consultation is a systematic way to identify and understand your different publics, provide them with relevant and understandable information, and work with them to resolve their concerns about your proposed project, program or policy.

http://www.islandnet.com/~connor/ or http://www.connor.bc.ca/

##
The Citizen’s Handbook © 1996 Vancouver Citizens Committee. The Vancouver Citizens Committee seeks to promote community, citizen participation and local democracy. http://www.vcn.bc.ca/citizens-handbook/

##
The Committee on Public Involvement in Transportation is associated with the Technical Activities Division of the Transportation Research Board (TRB).

[They no longer seem to be hosted at CH2M Hill, but try

• http://www.trbpi.com/]

Our Mission
The mission of the committee (ADA60) is to enhance the understanding, acceptance, and practice of public involvement as an art and science in transportation planning and project development activities by fostering research, identifying best practices, promoting use of new technologies, promulgating standards, and upgrading public involvement skills of transportation professionals.

• http://www.ch2m.com/trb_pi/default.asp

2001 conference session looks interesting http://www.ch2m.com/trb_pi/trbmeet2.html
list of committee members in your area http://www.ch2m.com/trb_pi/trbmission.html/

a 1997 reference to a course (check on availability)—
Public Involvement in Transportation Decision-making, A training course sponsored by the National Transit Institute.

This 2 1/2 day course gives transportation professionals the opportunity to develop their skills for interacting with the public. Through lectures, discussions, and small group workshops, the course will consider what constitutes meaningful public involvement in transportation decisionmaking processes. These include Major Investment Studies, transportation plans, transportation improvement programs, project development, and ADA programs.

This training program is designed for transportation planners, engineers, project development staff, and environmental specialists as well as public involvement specialists and other agency staff responsible for designing and carrying out effective public involvement. Among subjects covered include how to deal with apathy; how to include minority, low income, and multicultural communities; how to facilitate and resolve conflict and how to tailor a public involvement plan.

Tuition is free to public employees in areas of federal program responsibility. Enrollment is limited to 35 per class and registrations must be received one week prior to the start of the course. For more information, contact ??? Susan Greenstone (908) 932-1700???

Add this to Bookmarks:

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what-me-worry-we-have-plan

A commentary about Katrina’s “planning” but which is relevant for anyone’s preparedness.

—re: (Submitted: 09/04/2005 10:51 am)

• http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/32089.html

and evacuation “plans” and no one could know the levees would break etc.—

Last week I lost a Santa Fé friend. In the 1980s, the Republicans were planning evacuation strategies in case of nuclear attacks. I was at Los Alamos National Lab trying to get the off-site academics, i.e., anthropologists, who were most able to answer the holistic question “what would Nuclear Winter mean to humans” [not people as "patients" or as "soldiers" but as real people] interested in answering that question. ( | The Anthropology of Human Survival |)

My friend took a detailed look closer to home. According to FEMA (or whatever it was then) the idea was that the folks from Albuquerque would drive up to SFé. Once here (there) they would stay at St Kat’s Indian School, in the room with all the plate glass windows. Three times a day everyone would walk down and back through the fallout to McDonald’s for feeding.

Pete Dyke mapped out each inch and square inch of this “plan” and brought it to everyone’s attention. Among other things, it turns out the evacuation plan allowed a total space smaller than a single bed for each person.

The city ended up not approving the so-called evacuation plan. This is not to say that there shouldn’t be evacuation and emergency plans; but that every one of these plans needs detailed scrutiny from citizens like Pete. There aren’t many like Pete, and now there is one fewer.

Bird flu hitting TV screens May 9

I hope students would be able to do a detailed critical study of the science in this TV drama, and to discuss this with their families. Dramatic presentations of issues can be very effective, but as with any other information source, a critical eye is needed.

There are websites, such as the bad physics site, which point out the often humorous errors in TV and movies.
http://www.jal.cc.il.us/~mikolajsawicki/bad_physics.htm http://www.ems.psu.edu/~fraser/BadScience.html
Pam

Bird flu hitting TV screens May 9, ANDREW BRIDGES, Associated Press, Posted on Fri, Apr. 28, 2006

WASHINGTON – Bodies piling up so quickly it takes dump trucks to haul them away. Barbed wire to keep whole neighborhoods quarantined. It’s Hollywood’s version of bird flu, a blur of fact and fiction that some scientists say could confuse the public.

“Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America,” an ABC made-for-television movie, airs May 9, just as scientists are to begin testing of wild birds in Alaska that could herald the arrival of bird flu in North America. …

Bird flu expert Michael Osterholm said the movie realistically portrays the shortages of goods and services, and some of the ensuing panic, that could occur in a pandemic. But Osterholm frets the blurring of information and entertainment could do the public a disservice….

Dr. Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program office, praised the movie’s timeliness in raising public awareness of bird flu, as well as its portrayal of “a number of potentially realistic scenarios.” Those include the limited availability of antiviral medicines in a pandemic, the months it could take to develop an effective vaccine and in turn how the United States could be dependent on other countries – yes, that means France – to provide vaccine. The movie’s stressing of the importance of planning also won kudos from the department….

ABC will broadcast the movie during sweeps, when networks often trot out scare fare to boost the ratings that help determine local advertising rates. The network isn’t pushing “Fatal Contact” hard but has played up the bona fides of the movie, which it claims was “meticulously researched.”…

“I have some problems with it,” Barry said. “It’s certainly not a documentary.”

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/ entertainment/gossip/14454432.htm

Cartoons

Lame Ducks
http://www.adn.com/opinion/v-story_gallery_0/ story/7669619p-7581081c.html

Thought experiments — Forum Debate Rights in a Pandemic

Thought experiments (which I think was Einstein’s term) or models or exercises — are very important to science and to planning. Unfortunately, we have not had public discussions in our region. In San Jose agencies had this discussion but they don’t seem to have involved the public, too. (Maybe people have been discussing in the newspapers or churches?) Many of us haven’t faced the moral dilemmas that even firefighters or first aiders are trained for. Individuals have certainly asked themselves, “what if….?” whether about false rumors or spring flooding or an infected person. But in remote areas it would be so much better if we thought about contingencies as a community.
Pam

Forum Debate Rights in a Pandemic
from San Jose Mercury News

Here’s how a worldwide flu epidemic might start:

A sales manager for a multinational corporation returns to his California office from a business trip to Vietnam, feeling sick.

Within days this otherwise healthy man is near death. Other employees come down with a flu-like illness. A cleaning woman dies.

Tests show he has infected his co-workers with a form of bird flu that originated in Asia. Public health officials fear the worst: an outbreak of deadly pandemic flu.

What responsibility does the multinational corporation have to its workers? Can public health officials make residents stay in their homes to prevent the spread of disease? Can the government commandeer a local doctor’s supply of Tamiflu for people who need it most, or force nurses to be vaccinated? What if frightened nurses refuse to work?

http://tinyurl.com/l8two

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Cornell bird experts statement

This comes from a news release, not a refereed (peer reviewed) article. The points made have been made elsewhere–

highly pathogenic avian flu (as opposed to the run of the mill bird flu) seems to spread through trade (of infected birds)

poultry have been more susceptible than wild birds

However, the Cornell Lab of Ornithology (http://www.birds.cornell.edu/) is a key research source on birds. They have tracked the movements and population flucuations of birds for decades. I think their opinions should be carefully evaluated.
Pam

April 26, 2006
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/April06/H5N1migration.ksr.html
Migratory birds are unlikely to infect humans or poultry in U.S. with deadly avian flu, say Cornell bird experts….

While infection by the H5N1 strain of flu is rare in humans, it quickly kills half of those infected. In poultry, the highly pathogenic virus can be extremely deadly, killing more than 90 percent of infected birds within 48 hours. But many wild birds, especially certain waterfowl, can carry the deadly virus in their intestines with few symptoms.

“If avian flu were to show up in U.S. poultry, migratory birds are probably the least likely source of infection,” said Ken Rosenberg, director of conservation science at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology….

“It’s a whole lot easier to see someone smuggling an infected gamecock or parrot into the U.S. through Mexico or Canada,” added Kevin McGowan, a research associate at the lab, noting that all birds that are sold are regularly exposed to other birds from all over the world in both illegal and legal bird markets….

While the researchers are less concerned about avian flu impacting humans or domestic poultry, they point out that the virulence of the highly pathogenic H5N1 creates a real danger to threatened or endangered bird species. Whooping cranes and such species related to poultry as prairie chickens, grouse and quail are all in trouble and could be some of the most susceptible species to the highly pathogenic avian flu.