ClustrMaps Current Country Totals
From 12 Nov 2008 to 12 Nov 2009
| United States (US) | 29,827 |
| Canada (CA) | 2,800 |
| United Kingdom (GB) | 2,602 |
| India (IN) | 1,181 |
| Australia (AU) | 977 |
| Philippines (PH) | 903 |
| Singapore (SG) | 413 |
| France (FR) | 411 |
| Malaysia (MY) | 399 |
| Germany (DE) | 380 |
| Egypt (EG) | 303 |
| New Zealand (NZ) | 296 |
| Thailand (TH) | 292 |
| Netherlands (NL) | 259 |
Posted in demography, maps
Tagged Bumsted, Grassroots Science, Unorganized Borough, YKAlaska
[revised] 2008-10-20 Finally, ADN had background on Todd Palin’s family, Yup’ik ties give Palins unique Alaska connection NATIVE: Grandmother on Todd’s side calls the governor a ‘special gal.’ By TOM KIZZIA tkizzia@adn.com Published: October 19th, 2008 11:20 PM. Anthropologically or historically, this background information is important because it reflects a lot of Alaskan history and because Todd’s wife is running for Vice-President. Unfortunately, a lot of Sarah Palin’s supporters and Palin herself have used Todd’s grandmother as a qualification for political office. The argument Palin has used is that she automatically has the best interests of Alaska Native/American Indian, rural Alaska, and tribal issues because of her husband’s family. Grandmothers are important in the 2008 election, whether Sen. Obama’s or Gov. Palin’s in-laws. But actions rather than inheritance are clearer guides to integrity, in my opinion. Assuming that inheritance determines behavior is called “biological determinism” and is well demonstrated as false as any other racist assumption.
[additions]
After last Friday, there is no point in trying to correct what others in the country say about our native people in the Yukon Kuskokwim Nushagak region. Occasionally in the past I did try to inform news writers about how to improve their stories (professional journalists really ought to know how to look up answers). Even in Alaska, most people don’t know rural Alaska (because most people live in Anchorage).
I don’t know Todd Palin or his family. I read he was born in Dillingham along the Nushagak River of Bristol Bay; one of his great(?)grandparents is of Yup’ik heritage. [Todd’s grandmother grew up in a traditional Yup’ik Eskimo house in Bristol Bay and accompanied Sarah in her race for governor as she sought support from ... http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/08/29/CAMPAIGN_PALIN_odds.html]
As a child, he moved to Wasilla, where he met Sarah first during high school.
I just ran across this news story about the Yup’ik people in Eek, along the Kuskokwim River of Kuskokwim Bay. It is well written and gives a valid characterization of how Eskimo and Gussack (non-Eskimo, from the Russian), that is, Alaska Native and non-Alaska Native people, live in remote Alaska today.
Remote Alaskan village hangs onto heritage
by Mark Constantine | The Saginaw News
Sunday August 31, 2008, 9:00 AMEEK, Alaska — The sun hangs low in the sky in mid-July, just above the distant horizon, bathing the gently waving tundra grass in the soft, warm glow of early evening.
But it’s midnight and nightfall, or what the nearly 300 residents of the tiny village of Eek, Alaska, on the Eek River in the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta call night, remains an hour away. [...]
http://www.mlive.com/saginawnews/living/index.ssf/2008/08/remote_alaskan_village_hangs_o.html
For good writing and perspectives on national politics and the effects on Alaska and Alaska Natives stop by Writing Raven http://alaskareal.blogspot.com/
2008sep01 I have a listing of various teacher blogs from those teaching and learning in the rural Alaska, Tundra Teachers- http://cerebraloddjobs.edublogs.org/2007/11/10/tundra-teachers/ Some post more regularly than others. Most bloggers are new to teaching and Alaska, but the ones written by long-time Alaskans and Alaska Native teachers are particularly interesting.
Related posts specific to Sarah Palin
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2008/08/29/where-is-palin-and-bridge-to-nowhere-alaska/
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2008/08/31/todd-palin-sarah-palins-husband-and-rural-alaska-living/
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2008/08/29/where-is-wasilla-gov-sarah-palins-residence/
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/sarah-palin-content/
Site Search Tags: Todd+Palin, Sarah+Palin, Yup’ik, Dillingham, Eskimo, Bristol+Bay, Eek, , McCain+Palin, Nushagak, Kuskokwim, Russian+America
News media have described Wasilla, formerly mayored by Sarah Palin, with population size all over the place. For the latest population figures and other data, press that Alaska state flag in the sidebar or go here–
http://www.commerce.state.ak.us/dca/commdb/CIS.cfm?Comm_Boro_Name=Wasilla
Location map of WAH-sill-ah Alaska
2008-09-04 Related posts specific to Palin info
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2008/08/29/where-is-palin-and-bridge-to-nowhere-alaska/
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2008/08/31/todd-palin-sarah-palins-husband-and-rural-alaska-living/
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2008/08/29/where-is-wasilla-gov-sarah-palins-residence/
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/sarah-palin-content/
7,028 (2007 DCCED Certified Population)
Posted in demography, info sources, maps, Updates, where is Bethel
Tagged Bumsted, Grassroots Science, YKAlaska
[thimk, nota bene: my 2 cent opinion]
Senate Bill 289 would allow middle-income Alaskans to get grants and loans to make their homes more energy efficient. The bill is sponsored by Senator Lyman Hoffman of Bethel.
This will certainly be of help to many homeowners and to landlords such as Sen. Hoffman. I’m not so sure it can be effective in existing rental housing if landlords aren’t interested in upgrading. Bethel has no minimum standards for housing safety, even though it collects taxes on rentals. Thus, even “new” housing -may never become more economic for tenants [moldy or lacks insulation or is packed with electrical heating tape because the rehabbed ASHA (Alaska State Housing Authority) buildings don't have reality-based pipe systems (this is a cold region, folks, without standards for the flush-haul system of water delivery and sewage pick-up)]
True Voices left an interesting comment at an APRN.org story on the Alaska senate bill to give rebates to make middle-income homes “greener”.
I hope that this bill will also help in moving up or move away from the ever eroding river banks… very old wiring, old paper style plywoods, all windows cracked & drafty, etc. And can’t QUALIFY to fix or get a livable dwelling, still trying to be independent.
The comment is a succinct summary of what many face. If communities must be moved, the entire community is best moved together (the Davis Inlet to Natuashish incremental move had problems, especially for the older people, Remaining Innu of Davis Inlet feeling Abandoned). But TrueV points out what many individuals also face– imminent house collapse. The “home equity mortgage” bad loans do not work in many parts of the rural areas (housing may be expensive but it isn’t worth much as collateral). Older people in rural and frontier areas frequently don’t have excess/any retirement income. As in Bethel, there may not be any elder housing for 100s of miles (not even for assisted living or nursing homes). Weatherization and rehab funding often works best for situations outside of rural and remote places, with greater population density and civic resources.
The regulations written for emergency housing and relocation at the federal level (e.g., assistance from USDA Rural Development or Natural Resources Conservation Service) haven’t yet been translated into terms that allow rural areas to receive funding. For example, Homeland Security and Army Corps money might be applied if a highway collapse cuts off a town from its grocery stores. But we haven’t yet pointed out how collapsed stairways or river channel siltation also does the same thing, to the same proportion of people, even though the groceries are hunted. Electrical systems are critical homeland infrastructure– whether on a household or a city basis; the relative impact is the same. The applied funding and expertise isn’t. The long-term costs of not attending to adequate housing are so much more than the short-term expenses.
Thus, house by house a community melts into the river and initiates a constant family by family move into ever more crowded homes, ready themselves to collapse.
It may “take a village” to raise a child– a future citizen to assume statewide, national, and global responsibilities. But we don’t have genuine communities when older people must leave home or be trapped in substandard conditions.
How ever did the simple realization that a stitch in time saves nine become the regulatory: don’t call us if it’s less than a 500 million dollar or 500 thousand population crisis?
Site Search Tags: USACE, Army+Corps, energy, weatherization, elderly, relocation, erosion, FEMA, HUD, opinion, APRN.org, emergency, USDA, NRCS, legislation, aging+in+place, climate+change, Davis+Inlet, Innu, Canada, Natuashish, note+bene
Posted in demography, differing views (Thimk), environmental change, preparedness
Tagged Bumsted, Grassroots Science, YKAlaska
It is important that we understand how we coped in the past with pandemics in order to learn what is important to us as a people and to cope with future disasters. The Spanish Flu or world influenza pandemic of 1918 didn’t devastate Alaska until 1919. See related posts here
There are some written records, but many histories have yet to be written. Fortunately, Raymond L Hudson has recently published a history of the Jesse Lee Home. This was an Alaska orphanage set up, like so many, to care for children orphaned by illnesses in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The Jesse Lee Home was originally established in Unalaska/Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands. See Where can one hear both verses of state song? .
In an editorial, the Anchorage Daily News noted,
The Jesse Lee Home occupies a special place in Alaska history: It is the birthplace of Alaska’s flag. Thirteen-year-old Benny Benson lived at Jesse Lee when he entered a schoolchildren’s contest to design a territorial flag in 1927. His design won, and the first place it flew as Alaska’s official flag was the Jesse Lee Home.
Beyond the Benson connection, the Jesse Lee Home has a special meaning to Alaska Natives. Early in the 20th century, epidemics ravaged many Native areas and left behind many orphans. The Jesse Lee Home, which moved from Unalaska to Seward in 1925, sheltered and raised many of the youngsters left behind.
The chapter is kindly reprinted by permission, all rights reserved. Raymond L. Hudson 2007 Family After All: Alaska’s Jesse Lee Home, Vol. I, Unalaska, 1889-1925. Walnut Creek, CA: Hardscratch Press. ISBN 978-0-9789979-0-8. (www.hardscratchpress.com)
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Chapter 30 The Pandemic of 1919
By the time World War I ended with the signing of the armistice on Nov. 11, 1918, an influenza epidemic had crossed the United States and arrived on the west coast. In two years this pandemic would claim 50 million victims worldwide, including 675,000 Americans. Thousands of revelers in San Francisco wore protective face masks as they danced in the streets to celebrate the peace. Officials in Alaska were understandably worried. At Unalaska the dance halls and pool rooms were closed. Sailors were not allowed ashore.
The winter was stormy, but the general health of the people at Unalaska remained good. By spring, the threat seemed to have passed and life returned to normal. Dr. Newhall made a slightly ironic list of things to be thankful for: the local boys who had served in the war were unharmed; the flu had spared the village; snow was only five feet deep between the two Jesse Lee Home buildings; it was too stormy to dig clams, but plenty of clams were still waiting on the beach; the store was out of white sugar and table salt, but soft coal was only $25 a ton.
As May drew to a close, the weather cleared. The U.S.S. Saturn was in port to service the Navy radio station. Father Khotovitskii returned from visiting one of the outlying villages. Then on Friday, May 23, people began falling ill [1]. The speed with which the flu permeated the village was phenomenal. By Monday the influenza was epidemic, and the commanding officer of the Saturn wired Captain F.E. Dodge on the Coast Guard cutter Unalga anchored in Seredka Bay on Akun Island [2]. As Dodge took the Unalga toward Unalaska, a wire came from Dr. Linus H. French at the Kanakanak Hospital that the entire Bristol Bay region was being ravaged by influenza. On anchoring at Unalaska and inspecting the village, Dodge decided to remain at Unalaska. He wired Coast Guard headquarters in Washington, the governor of Alaska, and Dr. French about his decision.
Posted in demography, H5N1, history, preparedness, questions for other students, schoolchildren
Tagged Bumsted, Grassroots Science, YKAlaska
Even if readers don’t wish to present a paper at this conference, the question is well worth considering by communities. What are your priorities as family or community?
Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation?
The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the University of Oslo, with the support of the Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) project, announce a two day international conference to be held on 7 and 8 of February 2008 at the Royal Geographical Society in London. The title of the conference is “Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation?” The overall objective of this conference is to consider strategies for adapting to climate change, in particular to explore the potential barriers to adaptation that may limit the ability of societies to adapt to climate change and to identify opportunities for overcoming these barriers. The conference is aimed at researchers and practitioners with an interest in understanding how societies adapt to climate change.
Keynote speakers include: Garry Peterson, McGill University; Benjamin Orlove, University of California; Susanne Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) See:
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme3/adaptation2008/index.html
see also
Site Search Tags: climate+change, adaptation, biocultural+adaptation, NCAR, priorities
Posted in demography, differing views (Thimk), environmental change, haz com, sciencing
Tagged Bumsted, Grassroots Science, YKAlaska
When is a per cent nonsense?
Thursday morning the 27th (tomorrow, 10-11 AM AKT) KYUK radio will have a one-hour call-in show to discuss the ballot measure for the City of Bethel voters. This is an overdue discussion, occurring just in time before next Tuesday’s election.
The ballot measure is called Proposition One. It is the City’s second proposition to be called that, but the first to actually be on the ballot for voting.
The actual proposition is–
CITY OF BETHEL PROPOSITION NO. 1 ONE PERCENT INCREASE IN BETHEL SALES AND USE TAX
Shall the City of Bethel increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percent (total tax of 6%) for a period of 2 years followed by a decrease of a half (.5) percent (total tax 5.5%) which shall sunset on October 2, 2027?
YES
NO
Several of the existing city councillors and the designated mayor, the city attorney, several of those running for city council next Tuesday (but not all), a member of the radio board of directors, the YKHC wellness department, the KYUK news editor, plus others have stated this proposition says a swimming pool will be built out of the 1 cent increase for every dollar spent for food or heating fuel.
How can one consider this proposition prior to voting?
In fact, nowhere does the proposition say how the City Council will spend the money received. No amount of “we know where the taxes will be spent” can encumber the money for anything the Council doesn’t authorize.
1. increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percent
and
2. (total tax of 6%)
The current sales tax is 5% or 5 cents for every dollar, added to the sales total.
1. An increase in sales tax of 1% (one per cent) converted to decimal form is 0.01 times 0.05 dollars or 0.01 times 5 cents. This equals 5.0005 cents per dollar in sales.
and
2. An increase in total tax to 6% means 1 cent must be added to the existing 5 cents of every dollar. How much is one cent of 5 cents? that is, what percent is one out of 5? A twenty per cent increase in the existing sales tax will equal 6 cents per dollar in sales tax.
Think of this another way. You find the cost of doing business has gone up 20%. You now sell a half-gallon of milk for $5.00. What will the new price of milk be? [20% times $5 = $1.00 Add this to the current price. Therefore $6.00 is the new price]
1. decrease of a half (.5) percent
and
2. (total tax 5.5%)
The 2009 sales tax will be 5.0005%. A 0.5 per cent equals 0.005 in decimal. The 2010 to 2027 sales tax is ______
and
The 2009 sales tax will be 6.0%. A half per cent equals 0.005 in decimal. The 2010 to 2027 sale tax is _______
If the proposition passes, how much money will go to the swimming pool/rec center?
$________________ but also $______________
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It doesn’t take a college statistics course, like the one the mayor had, to multiply decimals because this is part of primary school arithmetic.
Suppose the proposition had instead been worded–
Shall the City of Bethel increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percentage point (from 5 cents per dollar to 6 cents per dollar or total tax rate of 6%) for a period of 2 years followed by a decrease of a half (.5) percentage point (total tax rate of 5.5%) which shall sunset on October 2, 2027?
There would be only one tax increase to be voted on, not two mutually exclusive increases.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There are other issues which should be considered before communal action is taken. Will the proposed action do what is intended or solve the stated problem? Are there better actions to take, including not taking any action? What are the total social, cultural, economic impacts (good or bad) of the proposed action? Do we have the correct problem defined?
The proposition states two different tax increases (1% of the existing rate and from 5% to 6%). Either makes a cost for retailers to re-calibrate their registers. Many other retailers do not use a computer for calculation or have small individual sales (under $100.00). The ordinance would increase the burden to small businesses and/or to residents of Bethel. Retailers would either have to overcharge customers (illegal) or pay the additional tax themselves.
The costs of sales tax processing by the City of Bethel would increase as would the auditing costs of local businesses and the legal pursuit of any delinquent taxes.
The original ordinance proposer (Councilor Leinberger) should have specified the annual (years 1 through 20)
* increase in revenues to be expected, including the projected population and economic condition
* increase in costs to the City
* increase in costs to the retailers (small and large)
* increase in cost of living to the consumer
The proposed tax increase will not go to a swimming pool. But if the increase in sales tax was tagged specifically to the operation and maintenance of a swimming pool and structure for 20 years, the total cost analysis of the pool/rec center must also be included for consideration (sustainability plus total costs to consumers). Would an increase to 5.005% even cover the costs of implementing the tax? Part of this analysis needs to examine the change in demographics for the next 20 years. We’ve lost over 600 people (out migration) in the past 12 months.
Are we even sure a tax increase, of whichever size the courts decide on, is important enough to charge the elderly, the fixed income, and the poor? We currently have double-digit unemployment (this figure only counts those registered for unemployment locally, not the additional people who don’t have unemployment benefits).
For example, adult proponents of the tax increases say the money is needed for a swimming pool rec center (in addition to the schools’ gyms, the cultural center, the youth center, and the library. We also have a home-grown small business fitness center.) so children have something to do to keep them off the streets. Not too long ago, the 4-H centennial project was for young people to identify the greatest needs in their community. When the youngsters spoke among themselves they expressed the overwhelming need for “safe houses”, places to go with sober adult supervision when home got to be too much.
Another reason given for the pool tax was to encourage new families to move to Bethel. The city already disbanded elder services. For over a decade we’ve been promised an assisted living home for our people to age in place, at home, instead of in Anchorage where one can die unattended even by staff. Would you move on the basis of wishful thinking? Yes, many people do. But don’t we deserve better, a genuine sustainable community instead of the one we wish we had?
Your turn. Add your 2 cents worth–
Site Search Tags: CoB, Bethel, Alaska, KYUK, election, elders, cost+of+living
Babies seriously ill, again.
[revised] We get annual and geographic clusters in rural Alaska, either respiratory (such as RSV) or fecal-oral, such as this or shigella or salmonella. Soiled diapers must be properly disposed of in the dump or landfill and covered over with fill so the foxes, dogs, flies, and birds don’t bring the germs back home. Even better, maybe, is put used diapers in a proper carcass pit with lime.
Wash hands before and after changing diapers and before playing with baby or feeding baby.
Kiss baby on top of the head, not on the mouth, nose, eyes, fingers, or toes
Why? Serious brain, heart, and lung infections can kill or cripple for life; caries (tooth decay is an infection) can make it difficult for children to learn speak our language properly; ear infections make it difficult for them to listen to our elders; eye infections can make it difficult to provide for families when grown.
Epidemiologists in Kotzebue investigating possible infant virus outbreak
Listen here:
http://aprn.org/2007/09/18/epidemiologists-in-kotzebue-investigating-possible-infant-virus-outbreak/
State department of health epidemiologists were in Kotzebue last week to investigate the cause of nine similar cases of respiratory illness in babies. State epidemiologist Dr. Beth Funk says the infants had a number of similar symptoms. Lori Townsend, APRN – Anchorage
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Sept. 14, 2007
Contact: Greg Wilkinson, (907) 269-7285, Cell (907) 382-7032
Ann Potempa, (907) 269-7957, Cell (907) 240-9158
Public Health responds to sick children in Kotzebue
Enterovirus identified as probable cause of illness( Anchorage, AK)— Two Public Health nurse epidemiologists with the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services flew to Kotzebue on Sept. 10, 2007, in response to the report of sick infants from communities in the Maniilaq region. The infants, all less than 2 months old, were brought to the regional hospital over the past 14 days with viral-like symptoms that included fever and respiratory distress. Some infants also had meningitis, and inflammation around the heart and in the heart muscle, consistent with a viral infection.
As of Sept. 12, there were nine reported cases, all of which required hospitalization. Five of those hospitalized in Kotzebue were transported to the Alaska Native Medical Center in Anchorage for further treatment.
Hospital staff submitted stool and swab samples for laboratory testing, and one of the samples tested positive for an enterovirus. Although this single test result is not conclusive, the pattern of illness in these very young infants is consistent with enteroviral infections. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, enteroviruses are very common, second only to the “common cold” viruses in humans. While everyone is at risk for infection, infants, children and adolescents are more susceptible. Enteroviruses can be found in the mucus or stool of an infected person and are usually passed by contact with contaminated surfaces or by improper hand washing following diaper changes.
“Although there are no medicines available to treat enteroviruses, knowing what is causing the outbreak helps the medical community treat the symptoms and informs public health officials about how to appropriately respond in order to slow the spread of the disease,” said Dr. Beth Funk, Public Health medical epidemiologist. “Thorough and frequent hand washing is the best way to prevent the spread of enteroviruses. Hands should be washed before preparing or eating food and after diaper changes or using the toilet. If running water is not readily available we recommend the use of alcohol-based hand sanitizers.”
The division will continue to monitor the number of reported cases from the Kotzebue area and will be looking for any additional cases from other communities around the state.
For more information, go to http://www.epi.hss.state.ak.us/, or if people have health concerns they should contact their local physician.
Site Search Tags: RSV, handwashing, babies, hands, enterovirus, fecal-oral, oral-faecal, epidemiology, diapers, infection, hygiene, Alaska, Kotzebue, ADHSS, revised, salmonella
Posted in demography, sanitation, schoolchildren
Alaska still does not require a knowledge of state history for young people to make that rite of passage to the adult world known as “high school graduate”. This site will assist to overcome that deficiency.
Does it matter for the civic body to know its place in time and space? Here’s an answer from Fairbanks, Sept. 9, 2007, Letter to the editor by Sean MacDonald, Daily NewsMiner,
http://newsminer.com/2007/09/13/8845
The Downtown Association has achieved some interesting concepts for the future of Fairbanks on its proposed revitalization map, available on its Web site..
“God give us another pipeline and we promise not to waste it” might be a familiar phrase for anyone who weathered the ’80s after the pipeline’s economic dream faded back to reality. Well, to the possible chagrin of atheists, history seems destined to repeat itself. We need effective and exact infrastructure downtown now to help efficiently maximize benefits from a gas line. The map sees only itself in Fairbanks’ future and doesn’t even seem to care about what we already have….
Does anyone look at the map and think ominously that it has no people on it?
Granted, it’s a ridiculous notion that people should be on the map, but if you put yourself into the map and walked around for a bit, would you feel like you were walking through Fairbanks or a hopeful but generic template? … Growth and culture are hard things to manufacture, and the map thinks that it can create both by bringing in the bulldozers.
Site Search Tags: planning, culture, high+school
Posted in demography, history, maps, preparedness, schoolchildren
I think the issue of alcohol and alcohol control in the Unorganized Borough is very important. It is also an issue which has had very little comprehensive analysis and evaluation by communities. It is not yet a major focus of the discussions here because no one has wanted to pursue this. I have, however, been adding references to Connotea, the On-line health environment (biocultural science and adaptation) bibliography [or see the feed in the sidebar] for others to examine.
I also run across items to post here that may be of interest. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to fully develop them as topics (as they deserve) so here is a listing from my backlog. [skip to Listing ]
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IMHO [My opinion, for what it's worth]
In all the time that I have lived in the Unorganized Borough, it seems we have policy, politics, and governance based upon “I know what’s best” that is, based upon belief and not evidence. See earlier discussions linked at
http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/pay-for-performance/
What is supposed to work in schools, similarly with alcohol control and Wall Street, seems to operate on belief rather than an examination of what is and then formulating testable ideas on what, if anything, needs doing. Belief is an important factor in “what works”. However, critical thinking and careful use of statistics, among other attributes of sciencing such as multiple working hypotheses, are important to keep us all honest. In the situation of pandemic fatal or crippling disease, wishful thinking or “denial” won’t keep us, at all.
and
Evaluate alternative actions http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/07/26/ evaluate-alternative-actions/
and
a strong new current in American life — the culture of assertion, which increasingly pushes logical argument out of our public conversation. According to this schema, things are true because I believe they are true and you have to respect that, because it’s what I believe…. Tim Rutten, quoted here
and
The irresistible power of magical thinking
New research demonstrates that habits of so-called magical thinking — the belief, for instance, that wishing harm on a loathed colleague or relative might make him sick — are far more common than people acknowledge.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/24/healthscience/snmag.php
http://www.boingboing.net/2007/01/23/psychology_of_magica.html
There’s no better example than the City of Bethel proposing alcohol sales as a means of getting the city out of its deep money troubles (oh, and alleviating problems related to alcohol consumption).
Instead, there are proven methods for thinking about issues which can set aside the self-centered emotional displays and ad hominem attacks in order to generate evidence for and against a proposed action or decision. One method is to set about disproving a “negative hypothesis”. It is easier to find cases which disprove a hypothesis. In addition, if one works hard to disprove the opposite idea to what one actually wants, it is easier not to play favorites.
I would like to see someone test this null hypothesis (come up with evidence against):
H0: Alcohol abuse is socially acceptable in Bethel and the Y-K Delta
Look for evidence such as the radio station’s playlists (how many songs about drinking, drunkenness, looking for “girls” despite our high rate of child abuse); joking; number of employees and salaries at Yukon Kuskokwim Health Corp. that deal directly (behavioral health) or indirectly (emergency room, community health aides, clerks, dentists) with alcohol abuse; number of employees, salaries, and costs associated with the correctional and judicial system; number of police and state troopers stationed and salaries and equipment; number of times “I was intoxicated” is used for mitigating circumstances; number of times people use “drinking” in the same sentence as “party”; number of times people who don’t drink allow those who are into their house; number of missions and church workers who deal directly or indirectly; number of school district employees and salaries who deal directly (counselors) and indirectly (teachers); et al.; number of grants and overhead that deal directly or indirectly; etc.
Additional Readings: (My complete list of Readings for Sciencing is also trapped in the backlog. But I promise that will be next. http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/08/04/readings-for-quantitative-analysis-and-interpretation/)
Platt (1964) [pdf file] Strong inference. Science, 146, 347-353.
Chamberlin, TC (1965) [pdf file] The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science, 148, 754-759.
Cohen (1990) [pdf file] Things I have learned (so far). American Psychologist, 45, 1304-1312.
Loftus, G. (1996) [pdf file] Psychology will be a much better science when we change the way we analyze data. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 5, 161-171.
Wickens, T. D. (2002) [pdf file] Elementary Signal Detection Theory. New York: Oxford University Press. [Chap 1; Chap 2 (sections 2.1-2.3); Chap. 3 (sections 3.1-3.3)]
Howell, D.C. (2002). Statistical Methods for Psychology, Chapter 18. Resampling and Nonparametric Approaches to Data (pp. 692-719).
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City council introduces alcohol delivery site
http://deltadiscovery.com/insidebethelnews/insidebethelnews.html
by Shane Iverson
retrieved 10/18/2005
The Bethel City Council narrowly voted in favor of introducing an ordinance aimed at creating a city controlled Alcohol Delivery Site. Ordnance #05-16, titled “Bethel Alcohol Delivery Site,” calls for the City to create a single site for which all alcohol must be imported to and picked up from.
The intention of the bill is to reduce access of alcohol to residents of dry villages, as well as to Bethel residents convicted of violent felonies or other alcohol related crimes. After hearing over 2 hours of public testimony, the City Council voted 4-3 in favor of introducing the ordinance.
….
Voting in favor was Mayor Hugh Dyment, council members Thor Williams, Dan Leinberger and newly-elected council member Mary Kenick. Opposition votes came from council members David Trantham, Andy McGowan and Acting Vice-Mayor Tundy Rodgers.
….
The most common argument was that the availability of alcohol in Bethel and in outlying villages had devastating consequences and ensuring that only responsible Bethel citizens could import alcohol may be part of the solution.
….
Most speakers sited a belief that tighter city controls and monitoring of alcohol importation will reduce crime and other social ails. A similar delivery site in Barrow immediately reduced crime rates by 5%. The region’s high rates of domestic violence, sexual assault, deaths by homicide, suicide and accidents, and Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) were the most common concerns.Though few believe bootlegging activities would be eradicated, the hope of these citizens was that potential black market dealers will find the business more difficult and less lucrative. “I have heard the bootleggers are very weary that they may be out of business,” commented Sipary in reference to the delivery site.
Members of the Alaska State Troopers and the Bethel Police Department were on hand to support the ordinance. The common sentiment was that they are over-burdened by the current level and nature of crime linked directly to alcohol abuse.
….
All three of the council members who voted against the motion sited the plan had not been sufficiently developed.
….
Mayor Dyment, who introduced the ordinance to the City Council, admitted there is more work to be done before it passes. “I can already think of three amendments to add,” he conceded, but added that by introducing the ordinance the Council can now focus on a more comprehensive plan.Council member Williams added it is the job of the city manager to develop many of the specific details.
….
Exactly how the city would pay for the delivery site is unclear.
….
“There is no way we know if this is going to work, but we’re never going to know if we don’t try,” concluded Lt. Achee.
Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention
http://alcalc.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/35/6/628
Review Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention.: By Harold Holder. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1999
“Within the community network, certain interacting subsystems have been identified, which are natural groupings of factors that research has shown to be important in the understanding of alcohol use. These are: (1) consumption subsystem: alcohol use as part of routine community life; (2) retail sales subsystem: alcohol availability and promotion; (3) formal regulation and control subsystem: rules, administration, and enforcement; (4) social normals subsystem: community values and social influences that affect drinking; (5) legal sanctions subsystem: prohibitive uses of alcohol; (6) social, economic, and health consequences subsystem: community identification of, and organized responses to, alcohol problems.
A chapter is dedicated to each of these subsystems. Most communities will have some data which can be fed into the analysis, while other elements will be more speculative. In the end, it should be possible for the analyst to predict the outcome of changes to any or indeed all of these subsystems. The arguments advanced are compelling and should encourage those responsible for developing alcohol strategies to look at these components and either develop their own computer model or consult with those already in existence. There are several illustrations of the SimCom simulation in action. A lingering question which remains unanswered is how to establish the credibility of this approach, so that it gains acceptance as part of the routine planning process within a community. Public and political acceptance and support for any system of intervention is crucial and may be hard to achieve particularly when pet theories or Corporate interests are being challenged or threatened. Unfortunately, it may always be easier to pursue familiar pathways, however unrewarding. In Holder’s conclusions, ‘Final Thoughts from a Heretic’, he states that the field of alcohol problem prevention should abandon high risk and target group approaches. ‘We will never purposefully prevent nor substantially reduce alcohol-involved problems by simply treating heavy dependent drinkers’. Likewise identification and targeting of groups within the community, typically young people, will, he believes, result in a similar failure.
Alcohol use disorders (AUDs)
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/543758_print (free registration required)
Diagnosis of Alcohol Dependence, Hugh Myrick, MD
Medscape Psychiatry & Mental Health. 2006;11(2) ©2006 Medscape
retrieved 08/30/2006Introduction
Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are a subset of substance-related disorders characterized by either recurrent, excessive drinking that impairs function and leads to negative physical, legal, or social sequelae (alcohol abuse); or by physiologic dependence — with associated tolerance and withdrawal — and continued use despite knowledge of the physiologic and social psychological ramifications of continued drinking (alcohol dependence).AUDs — often collectively termed alcoholism
Was It Alcohol or Anti-Semitism Talking?
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-drinking1aug01,0,7511382.story
Doctors disagree on whether Mel Gibson’s alleged comments reflected actual beliefs.
By Thomas H. Maugh II, LA Times Staff Writer, August 1, 2006Behavior experts were split Monday on whether the alleged anti-Semitic comments of Mel Gibson were a reflection of his beliefs or simply gibberish induced by intoxication — the alcohol talking, in other words.
Remarks such as those Gibson is alleged to have made are “not a product of alcohol,” … The content of any comments is in a person’s head, “in his opinion structure.”
Others, however, argue that gross intoxication can lead to a free association of ideas that are unrelated to an individual’s true character… “Basically, the person talks gibberish … and can behave in a very bizarre way,” …”They might not even be certain of what they are saying. They don’t understand what they are saying, and they don’t mean what they are saying,” Johnson said.
That argument has persisted in the profession for many years and is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, experts said.
…research has shown that at moderate levels (the legal limit for driving is 0.08% in California), alcohol releases what are known as prepotent responses — beliefs, thoughts and actions that an individual would normally try to suppress.
“Alcohol doesn’t produce new behaviors,” he said. “It releases things that people believe or know…. It exaggerates the personality of the individual.”… There is no shortage of expert opinions on the drinker who is highly intoxicated: Sussman cautioned that some drunks deliberately say things they don’t believe in order to be belligerent or to produce a particular response. [...]
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