Grassroots Science

I mentioned Dr Comstock in an updated comment at Anchorage Museum to open tuberculosis exhibit but his work deserves a separate entry. See the previous note and the complete obituary here http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/18/health/18comstock.html

“In 1957, the United States Public Health Service sought a doctor to study tuberculosis patterns in Alaska, where one of every 30 natives was in a tuberculosis hospital. Dr. Comstock volunteered, saying he saw an opportunity to study preventive treatment.

He conducted a controlled trial in 29 villages near Bethel, Alaska, where tuberculosis was rampant. Members of each household were given the drug INH or a placebo for a year, Dr. Chaisson said.

The study showed the effectiveness of INH in preventing tuberculosis: after a year, INH produced a 70 percent decline in cases of the disease; a follow-up study five years later showed the drug’s benefit had been sustained.

In the trial, Dr. Comstock and his family took INH themselves to convince the participants of his belief in the therapy’s safety, Dr. Chaisson said. After the trial, Dr. Comstock returned and gave INH to those who had received the placebo.

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s latest guidelines on INH therapy use Dr. Comstock’s data to this day.”

George W. Comstock, 92; epidemiologist was influential in the treatment of tuberculosis By Thomas H. Maugh II, Times Staff Writer July 18, 2007

Public health researcher dies SMITHSBURG - George Wills Comstock, an epidemiologist whose research helped shape the U.S. response to tuberculosis in the 1940s and ’50s…

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I think the issue of alcohol and alcohol control in the Unorganized Borough is very important. It is also an issue which has had very little comprehensive analysis and evaluation by communities. It is not yet a major focus of the discussions here because no one has wanted to pursue this. I have, however, been adding references to Connotea, the On-line health environment (biocultural science and adaptation) bibliography [or see the feed in the sidebar] for others to examine.

I also run across items to post here that may be of interest. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to fully develop them as topics (as they deserve) so here is a listing from my backlog. [skip to Listing ]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IMHO [My opinion, for what it's worth]
In all the time that I have lived in the Unorganized Borough, it seems we have policy, politics, and governance based upon “I know what’s best” that is, based upon belief and not evidence. See earlier discussions linked at

http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/pay-for-performance/
What is supposed to work in schools, similarly with alcohol control and Wall Street, seems to operate on belief rather than an examination of what is and then formulating testable ideas on what, if anything, needs doing. Belief is an important factor in “what works”. However, critical thinking and careful use of statistics, among other attributes of sciencing such as multiple working hypotheses, are important to keep us all honest. In the situation of pandemic fatal or crippling disease, wishful thinking or “denial” won’t keep us, at all.

and
Evaluate alternative actions http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/07/26/ evaluate-alternative-actions/

and

a strong new current in American life — the culture of assertion, which increasingly pushes logical argument out of our public conversation. According to this schema, things are true because I believe they are true and you have to respect that, because it’s what I believe…. Tim Rutten, quoted here

and

The irresistible power of magical thinking
New research demonstrates that habits of so-called magical thinking — the belief, for instance, that wishing harm on a loathed colleague or relative might make him sick — are far more common than people acknowledge.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/24/healthscience/snmag.php
http://www.boingboing.net/2007/01/23/psychology_of_magica.html

There’s no better example than the City of Bethel proposing alcohol sales as a means of getting the city out of its deep money troubles (oh, and alleviating problems related to alcohol consumption).

Instead, there are proven methods for thinking about issues which can set aside the self-centered emotional displays and ad hominem attacks in order to generate evidence for and against a proposed action or decision. One method is to set about disproving a “negative hypothesis”. It is easier to find cases which disprove a hypothesis. In addition, if one works hard to disprove the opposite idea to what one actually wants, it is easier not to play favorites.

I would like to see someone test this null hypothesis (come up with evidence against):

H₀: Alcohol abuse is socially acceptable in Bethel and the Y-K Delta

Look for evidence such as the radio station’s playlists (how many songs about drinking, drunkenness, looking for “girls” despite our high rate of child abuse); joking; number of employees and salaries at Yukon Kuskokwim Health Corp. that deal directly (behavioral health) or indirectly (emergency room, community health aides, clerks, dentists) with alcohol abuse; number of employees, salaries, and costs associated with the correctional and judicial system; number of police and state troopers stationed and salaries and equipment; number of times “I was intoxicated” is used for mitigating circumstances; number of times people use “drinking” in the same sentence as “party”; number of times people who don’t drink allow those who are into their house; number of missions and church workers who deal directly or indirectly; number of school district employees and salaries who deal directly (counselors) and indirectly (teachers); et al.; number of grants and overhead that deal directly or indirectly; etc.

Additional Readings: (My complete list of Readings for Sciencing is also trapped in the backlog. But I promise that will be next. http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/08/04/readings-for-quantitative-analysis-and-interpretation/)

Platt (1964) [pdf file] Strong inference. Science, 146, 347-353.

Chamberlin, TC (1965) [pdf file] The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science, 148, 754-759.

Cohen (1990) [pdf file] Things I have learned (so far). American Psychologist, 45, 1304-1312.

Loftus, G. (1996) [pdf file] Psychology will be a much better science when we change the way we analyze data. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 5, 161-171.

Wickens, T. D. (2002) [pdf file] Elementary Signal Detection Theory. New York: Oxford University Press. [Chap 1; Chap 2 (sections 2.1-2.3); Chap. 3 (sections 3.1-3.3)]

Howell, D.C. (2002). Statistical Methods for Psychology, Chapter 18. Resampling and Nonparametric Approaches to Data (pp. 692-719).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Listing

City council introduces alcohol delivery site
http://deltadiscovery.com/insidebethelnews/insidebethelnews.html
by Shane Iverson
retrieved 10/18/2005

The Bethel City Council narrowly voted in favor of introducing an ordinance aimed at creating a city controlled Alcohol Delivery Site. Ordnance #05-16, titled “Bethel Alcohol Delivery Site,” calls for the City to create a single site for which all alcohol must be imported to and picked up from.

The intention of the bill is to reduce access of alcohol to residents of dry villages, as well as to Bethel residents convicted of violent felonies or other alcohol related crimes. After hearing over 2 hours of public testimony, the City Council voted 4-3 in favor of introducing the ordinance.
….
Voting in favor was Mayor Hugh Dyment, council members Thor Williams, Dan Leinberger and newly-elected council member Mary Kenick. Opposition votes came from council members David Trantham, Andy McGowan and Acting Vice-Mayor Tundy Rodgers.
….
The most common argument was that the availability of alcohol in Bethel and in outlying villages had devastating consequences and ensuring that only responsible Bethel citizens could import alcohol may be part of the solution.
….
Most speakers sited a belief that tighter city controls and monitoring of alcohol importation will reduce crime and other social ails. A similar delivery site in Barrow immediately reduced crime rates by 5%. The region’s high rates of domestic violence, sexual assault, deaths by homicide, suicide and accidents, and Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) were the most common concerns.

Though few believe bootlegging activities would be eradicated, the hope of these citizens was that potential black market dealers will find the business more difficult and less lucrative. “I have heard the bootleggers are very weary that they may be out of business,” commented Sipary in reference to the delivery site.

Members of the Alaska State Troopers and the Bethel Police Department were on hand to support the ordinance. The common sentiment was that they are over-burdened by the current level and nature of crime linked directly to alcohol abuse.
….
All three of the council members who voted against the motion sited the plan had not been sufficiently developed.
….
Mayor Dyment, who introduced the ordinance to the City Council, admitted there is more work to be done before it passes. “I can already think of three amendments to add,” he conceded, but added that by introducing the ordinance the Council can now focus on a more comprehensive plan.

Council member Williams added it is the job of the city manager to develop many of the specific details.
….
Exactly how the city would pay for the delivery site is unclear.
….
“There is no way we know if this is going to work, but we’re never going to know if we don’t try,” concluded Lt. Achee.

Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention
http://alcalc.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/35/6/628

Review Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention.: By Harold Holder. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1999

“Within the community network, certain interacting subsystems have been identified, which are natural groupings of factors that research has shown to be important in the understanding of alcohol use. These are: (1) consumption subsystem: alcohol use as part of routine community life; (2) retail sales subsystem: alcohol availability and promotion; (3) formal regulation and control subsystem: rules, administration, and enforcement; (4) social normals subsystem: community values and social influences that affect drinking; (5) legal sanctions subsystem: prohibitive uses of alcohol; (6) social, economic, and health consequences subsystem: community identification of, and organized responses to, alcohol problems.

A chapter is dedicated to each of these subsystems. Most communities will have some data which can be fed into the analysis, while other elements will be more speculative. In the end, it should be possible for the analyst to predict the outcome of changes to any or indeed all of these subsystems. The arguments advanced are compelling and should encourage those responsible for developing alcohol strategies to look at these components and either develop their own computer model or consult with those already in existence. There are several illustrations of the SimCom simulation in action. A lingering question which remains unanswered is how to establish the credibility of this approach, so that it gains acceptance as part of the routine planning process within a community. Public and political acceptance and support for any system of intervention is crucial and may be hard to achieve particularly when pet theories or Corporate interests are being challenged or threatened. Unfortunately, it may always be easier to pursue familiar pathways, however unrewarding. In Holder’s conclusions, ‘Final Thoughts from a Heretic’, he states that the field of alcohol problem prevention should abandon high risk and target group approaches. ‘We will never purposefully prevent nor substantially reduce alcohol-involved problems by simply treating heavy dependent drinkers’. Likewise identification and targeting of groups within the community, typically young people, will, he believes, result in a similar failure.

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs)
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/543758_print (free registration required)

Diagnosis of Alcohol Dependence, Hugh Myrick, MD
Medscape Psychiatry & Mental Health. 2006;11(2) ©2006 Medscape
retrieved 08/30/2006

Introduction
Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are a subset of substance-related disorders characterized by either recurrent, excessive drinking that impairs function and leads to negative physical, legal, or social sequelae (alcohol abuse); or by physiologic dependence — with associated tolerance and withdrawal — and continued use despite knowledge of the physiologic and social psychological ramifications of continued drinking (alcohol dependence).

AUDs — often collectively termed alcoholism

Was It Alcohol or Anti-Semitism Talking?
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-drinking1aug01,0,7511382.story

Doctors disagree on whether Mel Gibson’s alleged comments reflected actual beliefs.
By Thomas H. Maugh II, LA Times Staff Writer, August 1, 2006

Behavior experts were split Monday on whether the alleged anti-Semitic comments of Mel Gibson were a reflection of his beliefs or simply gibberish induced by intoxication — the alcohol talking, in other words.

Remarks such as those Gibson is alleged to have made are “not a product of alcohol,” … The content of any comments is in a person’s head, “in his opinion structure.”

Others, however, argue that gross intoxication can lead to a free association of ideas that are unrelated to an individual’s true character… “Basically, the person talks gibberish … and can behave in a very bizarre way,” …”They might not even be certain of what they are saying. They don’t understand what they are saying, and they don’t mean what they are saying,” Johnson said.

That argument has persisted in the profession for many years and is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, experts said.

…research has shown that at moderate levels (the legal limit for driving is 0.08% in California), alcohol releases what are known as prepotent responses — beliefs, thoughts and actions that an individual would normally try to suppress.

“Alcohol doesn’t produce new behaviors,” he said. “It releases things that people believe or know…. It exaggerates the personality of the individual.”… There is no shortage of expert opinions on the drinker who is highly intoxicated: Sussman cautioned that some drunks deliberately say things they don’t believe in order to be belligerent or to produce a particular response. [...]

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Report Estimates Warming’s Toll on Alaska
By Lori Townsend, APRN
ANCHORAGE, AK (2007-02-14) A University of Alaska think tank provided a glimpse of a report today that for the first time calculates the cost of maintaining Alaska’s public infrastructure in a changing climate. © Copyright 2007, APRN

Listen here (mp3 format)

The report was finally published (notice from WHAT’S UP - July 4, 2007 - Compiled Weekly by Peg Tileston on behalf of the Alaska Women’s Environmental Network (AWEN), Alaska Center for the Environment (ACE), and Alaska Conservation Alliance (ACA). View list information and archives, visit

• http://lists.onenw.org/lists/info/whatsup

There hasn’t previously been a chance to review the report. From the news accounts it doesn’t sound like they included an estimate for all the previous decade’s worth of projects which must be re-built or which should never have been built, had the state listened to those of us that suggested climate change should be factored into state and federal funded development. I tried nearly 10 years ago to get rural landfill permitting to include such evaluation. It was obvious, too obvious, then that environmental change had affected roads, dumps, airports, barge landings, fuel depots, schools, sewage lagoons, new and old housing, etc., etc. The state didn’t think global warming was real and anyway, as a state employee, I was too thoughtful.

It is unlikely the model is an estimate of total costs, but rather the easier calculation of dollars (cash) expenditures. However, each community could start now to do a total cost analysis (for the next 10 and 50 years). It can be done without itself costing much money.

HOW MUCH MIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE ADD TO FUTURE COSTS FOR PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE? is the latest report from the Institute for Social & Economic Research (ISER). Scientists expect Alaska’s climate to get warmer over time—and the changing climate could make it roughly 10% to 20% more expensive to build and maintain public infrastructure in Alaska between now and 2030 and 10% more expensive between now and 2080. These are preliminary estimates of how much climate warming could increase the future costs for roads, harbors, schools, the power grid, sewer systems, and all the other public infrastructure that keeps Alaska functioning. A warming climate will damage Alaska’s infrastructure—and make it more expensive to maintain and replace—because that infrastructure was designed for a cold climate. These preliminary estimates of how much infrastructure costs might increase are from a model ISER researchers developed with help from faculty at UAA’s School of Engineering and the University of Colorado. Even without climate change, the costs of maintaining and replacing federal, state, and local infrastructure in Alaska are considerable—an estimated $32 billion between now and 2030 and $56 billion between now and 2080. Damage from climate change could add $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion to infrastructure costs between now and 2030 and $5.6 billion to $7.6 billion between now and 2080, depending on the level of climate change and assuming that government agencies adapt infrastructure to changing conditions.

Unfortunately, everything is in pdf format from

• “Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate Change” http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Home/ResearchAreas/climatechange.htm

Download the full report
Download the 8 page summary
Download the power point presentation
Download ICICLE Program #1
Download ICICLE Program #2
Download ICICLE Program #3

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Site Search Tags: ISER, UAA, infrastructure, cost, APRN, global+warming, climate+change, delta, erosion, permafrost, Whats+up

Amazing, I guess, how the US only Unorganized Borough and this map of persistent poverty 1970-2000 overlap.

Where is… Alaska.UnorganizedBorough.um

Poorest places in the United States

Richest cities in the U.S. (Bethel)

Where is… State of Alaska

For more information on

• Poverty portal at the US census.gov
• Rural Poverty Research Center http://www.rprconline.org/index.htm

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from

• http://www.boingboing.net/2007/04/30/using_floating_junk_.html
• Boing-boing

an update on our | Where is… duckie invasion |

… Fifteen years, ago a shipping container fell off a boat crossing the Pacific, spilling tens of thousands of rubber duckies, turtles, and other bath toys.

from Science News:
Recently, (retired oceanographer Curtis) Ebbesmeyer and his colleagues used almost a century of data from such floating objects to map the gyre’s major subcurrents and swirls…

Even today, additional members of the tub-toy armada occasionally make landfall. The date and place of each of the nearly 1,000 toys recovered to date provide a data point, says Curtis Ebbesmeyer, a retired oceanographer in Seattle. Some of the toys are well traveled indeed—one frog washed ashore in Scotland, and a duck turned up near Maine. [...]

The article is interesting to read the explanation as to why rubber duckies and Nike shoes are better scientific measurement tools than the high-tech ones.

• http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20070428/bob9.asp

Science News is a very worthwhile weekly publication, although expensive. It makes scientific discoveries accessible to the general reader, without compromising quality. I highly recommend it.

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This is an interesting project, among others, that one of our Villages is doing. The first birds would be a nice complement to a bugs project. It’s not too late for first bugs.

Have a look.

• First *Spring Birds* Seen and Heard:
  http://shageluk.iasd.schoolaccess.net/innoko_birds.html

Up close and personal (click on image)

Where is Shageluk? The Village of Shageluk is the last Deg’Hitan Athabascan settlement on the Innoko River. Click on the Alaska flag on the sidebar to find more information on Shageluk.

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Shageluk at Necctar
Alaska at Necctar
Grassroots science at Necctar

Site Search Tags: Shageluk, science+project, Athabascan, Innoko, spring, school, where+is, Iditarod+Schools

[In actuality, before the end of the 21st Century.]

Where is Bethel… 2040 (no ice cap)
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/12/11/where-is-bethel-2040/

Where is Bethel 2050 (endemic malaria)
http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/03/13/where-is-bethel-year-2050/

Where is… Bethel 22nd century
“The map … shows how a 4-meter sea level rise inundates the Yukon-Kuskokwim delta; click the map for a larger view.”

• Alaska Conservation Foundation produced this map; discussion here http://www.akcf.org/_pages/programs_amp_initiatives/climate_change.php

A 4m rise in sea-level will be significant although many expect a much larger rise. Keep in mind this is the mean sea-level (as in arithmetic mean, a type of average) and not the level of the sea during tides or during storms.

Check out resources here,

• Stats basics at Good Math Bad Math
  http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2007/01/26/stats-basics-at-good-math-bad-math/

The map is derived from the models here,

• http://tinyurl.com/ca73h

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and you thought kiwis were flightless ;)

see previous | Our birds Polynesia |, | YK Bird Study Protocol | I haven’t heard anything this year about the bird sampling.

As the last bar-tailed godwits leave New Zealand estuaries on their northern migration to Alaska this week, Massey scientists will trace their journey via satellite-tagged individuals.

…Dr Battley says that while the 11,000 km southern migration of the godwit from Alaska to New Zealand is thought to be the longest non-stop migration of any bird, not much is known about their northern route… three birds have recently landed in the Yellow Sea, with one covering 11,000 km in just over seven and a half days, at an average speed of 56 km/hr.

The satellite track of the godwits’ navigation can be viewed online at:

• http://www.werc.usgs.gov/sattrack/shorebirds/overall.html

and more information on the project is available at

• http://www.prbo.org/cms/index.php

Read more of our fascinating little bird [...]

• http://masseynews.massey.ac.nz/2007/Press_Releases/03-27-07.html

The complete satellite map has to be viewed in Google Earth, unfortunately, but you can still see the trace for each bird.

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The original map allows clicking on each zone for specific information.

Alaska has two time zones and evidently used to have 4. But the state is so big that whenever the clock indicates noon, the actual highest point in the sky can be off by a couple of hours.

Samoa Time - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Samoa/s/-11
Federated States of Micronesia (Caroline) - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Micronesia/s/11
Hawaii-Aleutian Time - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Hawaii-Aleutian/s/-10
Alaska Time Zone - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Alaska/d/-9
Pacific Time Zone - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Pacific/d/-8
Mountain Time Zone (Arizona, Non-Navajo) No Daylight Saving Time - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Mountain/s/-7
Central Time Zone - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Central/d/-6
Eastern Time Zone - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Eastern/d/-5
Atlantic Time Zone - Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands, No Daylight Saving Time - http://nist.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Atlantic/s/-4

Set Your Computer Clock Via the Internet, NIST Internet Time Service (ITS)

• http://tf.nist.gov/timefreq/service/its.htm

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

• http://tf.nist.gov/general/misc.htm

Why is UTC used as the acronym for Coordinated Universal Time instead of CUT?

In 1970 the Coordinated Universal Time system was devised by an international advisory group of technical experts within the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The ITU felt it was best to designate a single abbreviation for use in all languages in order to minimize confusion. Since unanimous agreement could not be achieved on using either the English word order, CUT, or the French word order, TUC, the acronym UTC was chosen as a compromise.

And for the real time, by the sun,

• http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.html

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This would be such an incredibly interesting and valuable experiment for our villages to do. We have the unique situation of genuine communities (not ad hoc ones like a dormitory), manageably small, which are separated by space but which share many cultural, human biological, and ecological similarities. That is, it would be easy to find pairs or triplets of communities which are matched in every respect except the variable to be tested– does wearing masks and/or hand sanitizers and handwashing prevent or cut down the amount of respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases? How about Kongignanak and Kwigillingok? The Tundra Villages (Nunapitchuk, Amautluak, Kasigluk)? Russian Mission, St Mary’s, and Mt Village? Hooper Bay and Chevak? Mekoryak this year and Mekoryak last year? The Koyukon villages?

• Will masks stop bird flu? US students experiment
  http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N30370768.htm

30 Jan 2007 Source: Reuters By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

Can wearing a face mask and regularly cleaning hands stop the spread of deadly bird flu? Students at the University of Michigan started a living experiment on Tuesday to find out.

They are using the peak of influenza season to see if simple cotton masks and little bottles of hand sanitizer will protect them.

More than 2,000 students living in University of Michigan dormitories will wear masks and use hand sanitizer to see if they develop lower rates of influenza than students not using such protections….

Students in one group will use hand sanitizer and wear simple cotton surgical masks. Another group will use only the masks and a third group will get no extra protections.

They will use the products as soon as influenza is detected and reported among students…

The researchers will simply watch and see if the groups get influenza and related illnesses at different rates. The U.S. flu season generally starts in October and lasts through March, peaking in February. [...]

The New York Times article below discusses some of the other real life aspects of the study.

‘It’s kind of hard to eat with this thing on,” the University of Michigan freshman said recently from behind the blue mask. ”It’s kind of hard to do a lot of things with this on.”

But every day, Miguel, 18, wears the mask while he studies, does laundry and sprints to class. It’s gets a little uncomfortable, but it’s for a good cause, he says….

They’ll fill out surveys every week, answering questions about their physical health and how often they wear the mask, which is optional outside the residence halls. The students will wear the masks until the flu outbreak has died down, but no longer than six weeks, the researchers said.

Funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the research is the first of its kind, said Dr. Allison Aiello, a Michigan epidemiology professor who designed the study with principal investigator Dr. Arnold Monto.[...]

• http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Flu-Masks.html