Grassroots Science

Another excellent reference from BHIC (see sidebar, http://nnlm.gov/mcr/bhic/?p=2711

A Students Guide to the Medical Literature
A Students Guide to the Medical Literature (by K McLucas U Colorado HSC) http://grinch.uchsc.edu/sg/ includes a Tutorial outlining a 4-step approach to reading medical literature ; Search Strategies with links to the best web sites; A Guide to Critical Appraisal of journal articles with step-by-step explanation of the “User’s Guide approach ; An interactive Glossary with over 150 statistical terms hyperlinked to the text ; Calculators for finding relevant outcome measures from a study ; and a Student’s Guide Pocket Version to use on your Palm or Pocket PC [posted in: HEALTH COMMUNICATION Web sites #1, 2008, compiled by Marcia Zorn, MA, MLS; Lists are Archived by the Coalition for Health Communication at

• http://www.healthcommunication.net/Online_Resources.html

related entries here–
Pew Report: Online Health Search 2006

Quick guide to critical evaluation of information sources

Getting Results from Your Experts

Hoaxes Rumors — lookup

Calling cards of quackery

Medical Reference for Non-Medical Librarians

Site Search Tags: reference, critical+thinking, guide, evaluate, information, experts

Even if readers don’t wish to present a paper at this conference, the question is well worth considering by communities. What are your priorities as family or community?

Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation?

The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the University of Oslo, with the support of the Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) project, announce a two day international conference to be held on 7 and 8 of February 2008 at the Royal Geographical Society in London. The title of the conference is “Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation?” The overall objective of this conference is to consider strategies for adapting to climate change, in particular to explore the potential barriers to adaptation that may limit the ability of societies to adapt to climate change and to identify opportunities for overcoming these barriers. The conference is aimed at researchers and practitioners with an interest in understanding how societies adapt to climate change.

Keynote speakers include: Garry Peterson, McGill University; Benjamin Orlove, University of California; Susanne Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) See:
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme3/adaptation2008/index.html

see also

Site Search Tags: climate+change, adaptation, biocultural+adaptation, NCAR, priorities

University of Oregon Libraries has a nice outline of how to evaluate if the source of information you are using is reliable. The questions to consider are in a table or matrix form. For example,

Authority

* Who is the author?

* Most common places to find authors’ names listed:

o Title page (book or report)
o Title information at top of first page (articles, book chapters)
o End of the article (encyclopedias)
o Top or bottom of page (web pages)

These examples are intended to underscore that there is no substitute for personal evaluation of information sources, whether in print, online, or in some other form. The questions below are ones you might ask about an information source - article in a journal, newspaper, or encyclopedia, book, web site, pamphlet, government document, food container, poster, interview subject, or any other source upon which you’re relying - in order to determine its credibility and suitability for your particular project. Not all questions will apply in all situations, and not all responses need to be positive ones - this is not a scorecard. The questions are merely intended to help you think critically about information sources.

http://libweb.uoregon.edu/guides/findarticles/credibility.html

Site Search Tags: evaluate+resources, library, Internet, critical+thinking

When is a per cent nonsense?

Thursday morning the 27th (tomorrow, 10-11 AM AKT) KYUK radio will have a one-hour call-in show to discuss the ballot measure for the City of Bethel voters. This is an overdue discussion, occurring just in time before next Tuesday’s election.

The ballot measure is called Proposition One. It is the City’s second proposition to be called that, but the first to actually be on the ballot for voting.

The actual proposition is–

CITY OF BETHEL PROPOSITION NO. 1 ONE PERCENT INCREASE IN BETHEL SALES AND USE TAX

Shall the City of Bethel increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percent (total tax of 6%) for a period of 2 years followed by a decrease of a half (.5) percent (total tax 5.5%) which shall sunset on October 2, 2027?

YES

NO

Several of the existing city councillors and the designated mayor, the city attorney, several of those running for city council next Tuesday (but not all), a member of the radio board of directors, the YKHC wellness department, the KYUK news editor, plus others have stated this proposition says a swimming pool will be built out of the 1 cent increase for every dollar spent for food or heating fuel.

How can one consider this proposition prior to voting?

• Q. where do “swimming pool” and “rec center” appear in the proposition?

In fact, nowhere does the proposition say how the City Council will spend the money received. No amount of “we know where the taxes will be spent” can encumber the money for anything the Council doesn’t authorize.

• Q. How much will the new tax be, if approved?

1. increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percent
and
2. (total tax of 6%)

The current sales tax is 5% or 5 cents for every dollar, added to the sales total.

1. An increase in sales tax of 1% (one per cent) converted to decimal form is 0.01 times 0.05 dollars or 0.01 times 5 cents. This equals 5.0005 cents per dollar in sales.

and

2. An increase in total tax to 6% means 1 cent must be added to the existing 5 cents of every dollar. How much is one cent of 5 cents? that is, what percent is one out of 5? A twenty per cent increase in the existing sales tax will equal 6 cents per dollar in sales tax.

Think of this another way. You find the cost of doing business has gone up 20%. You now sell a half-gallon of milk for $5.00. What will the new price of milk be? [20% times $5 = $1.00 Add this to the current price. Therefore $6.00 is the new price]

• Q. How much will the new tax be after two years for the next 18 years, if approved?

1. decrease of a half (.5) percent
and
2. (total tax 5.5%)

The 2009 sales tax will be 5.0005%. A 0.5 per cent equals 0.005 in decimal. The 2010 to 2027 sales tax is ______

and

The 2009 sales tax will be 6.0%. A half per cent equals 0.005 in decimal. The 2010 to 2027 sale tax is _______

If the proposition passes, how much money will go to the swimming pool/rec center?

$________________ but also $______________

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It doesn’t take a college statistics course, like the one the mayor had, to multiply decimals because this is part of primary school arithmetic.

Suppose the proposition had instead been worded–

Shall the City of Bethel increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percentage point (from 5 cents per dollar to 6 cents per dollar or total tax rate of 6%) for a period of 2 years followed by a decrease of a half (.5) percentage point (total tax rate of 5.5%) which shall sunset on October 2, 2027?

There would be only one tax increase to be voted on, not two mutually exclusive increases.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There are other issues which should be considered before communal action is taken. Will the proposed action do what is intended or solve the stated problem? Are there better actions to take, including not taking any action? What are the total social, cultural, economic impacts (good or bad) of the proposed action? Do we have the correct problem defined?

The proposition states two different tax increases (1% of the existing rate and from 5% to 6%). Either makes a cost for retailers to re-calibrate their registers. Many other retailers do not use a computer for calculation or have small individual sales (under $100.00). The ordinance would increase the burden to small businesses and/or to residents of Bethel. Retailers would either have to overcharge customers (illegal) or pay the additional tax themselves.

The costs of sales tax processing by the City of Bethel would increase as would the auditing costs of local businesses and the legal pursuit of any delinquent taxes.

The original ordinance proposer (Councilor Leinberger) should have specified the annual (years 1 through 20)
* increase in revenues to be expected, including the projected population and economic condition
* increase in costs to the City
* increase in costs to the retailers (small and large)
* increase in cost of living to the consumer

The proposed tax increase will not go to a swimming pool. But if the increase in sales tax was tagged specifically to the operation and maintenance of a swimming pool and structure for 20 years, the total cost analysis of the pool/rec center must also be included for consideration (sustainability plus total costs to consumers). Would an increase to 5.005% even cover the costs of implementing the tax? Part of this analysis needs to examine the change in demographics for the next 20 years. We’ve lost over 600 people (out migration) in the past 12 months.

Are we even sure a tax increase, of whichever size the courts decide on, is important enough to charge the elderly, the fixed income, and the poor? We currently have double-digit unemployment (this figure only counts those registered for unemployment locally, not the additional people who don’t have unemployment benefits).

For example, adult proponents of the tax increases say the money is needed for a swimming pool rec center (in addition to the schools’ gyms, the cultural center, the youth center, and the library. We also have a home-grown small business fitness center.) so children have something to do to keep them off the streets. Not too long ago, the 4-H centennial project was for young people to identify the greatest needs in their community. When the youngsters spoke among themselves they expressed the overwhelming need for “safe houses”, places to go with sober adult supervision when home got to be too much.

Another reason given for the pool tax was to encourage new families to move to Bethel. The city already disbanded elder services. For over a decade we’ve been promised an assisted living home for our people to age in place, at home, instead of in Anchorage where one can die unattended even by staff. Would you move on the basis of wishful thinking? Yes, many people do. But don’t we deserve better, a genuine sustainable community instead of the one we wish we had?

Your turn. Add your 2 cents worth–

• Please find any arithmetic errors I made above.
• How would you have worded the sales tax proposition for honest assessment by voters?
• Are there any projects you think deserve a sales tax increase? What would you propose?

Site Search Tags: CoB, Bethel, Alaska, KYUK, election, elders, cost+of+living

Today’s morning talk hour discussed alcohol (again). I said I would post a couple of references for those asking if some groups of people are genetically programmed to abuse alcohol.

There are two significant articles (more but two to start with) that should be considered by anyone. These articles are listed in the scientific bookmarks collection at (see sidebar) Alcohol control articles at Connotea

The first article is

Science 24 April 1987:
Vol. 236. no. 4800, pp. 410 - 416
DOI: 10.1126/science.2882604 Science, Vol 236, Issue 4800, 410-416
Copyright © 1987 by American Association for the Advancement of Science

ABSTRACT
Clinical, genetic, and neuropsychopharmacological studies of developmental factors in alcoholism are providing a better understanding of the neurobiological bases of personality and learning. Studies of the adopted-away children of alcoholics show that the predisposition to initiate alcohol-seeking behavior is genetically different from susceptibility to loss of control after drinking begins. Alcohol-seeking behavior is a special case of exploratory appetitive behavior and involves different neurogenetic processes than do susceptibility to behavioral tolerance and dependence on the antianxiety or sedative effects of alcohol. Three dimensions of personality have been described that may reflect individual differences in brain systems modulating the activation, maintenance, and inhibition of behavioral responses to the effects of alcohol and other environmental stimuli. These personality traits distinguish alcoholics with different patterns of behavioral, neurophysiological, and neuropharmacological responses to alcohol.

The entire article can be downloaded here. It is a technical article but not difficult to understand.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/236/4800/410

The second article is

American Scientist, Volume 84, Issue 2, p.132-145, 03/1996
Bibliographic Code: 1996AmSci..84..132B

In 1990 one of us published with his colleagues a paper suggesting that a specific genetic anomaly was linked to alcoholism (Blum et al. 1990). Unfortunately it was often erroneously reported that they had found the “alcoholism gene,” implying that there is a one-to-one relation between a gene and a specific behavior. Such misinterpretations are common-readers may recall accounts of an “obesity gene,” or a “personality gene.” Needless to say, there is no such thing as a specific gene for alcoholism, obesity or a particular type of personality. However, it would be naive to assert the opposite, that these aspects of human behavior are not associated with any particular genes. Rather the issue at hand is to understand how certain genes and behavioral traits are connected.

The article is easily available here–

• http://www.recoveryemporium.com/AmSci.htm

There was also an interesting poem read by another listener, “My name is Mr Alcohol” which is 20 years old or so. I couldn’t find that poem on-line nor any source for the poet and publication. Can anyone else help?

Site Search Tags: KYUK, Connotea, alcohol, AAAS, Sigma+Xi, biocultural, genetics, adaptation, American+Scientist, ADHD, thrill-seeking, risk, fathers+sons

• Anyone who conducts an argument by appealing to authority is not using his intelligence; he is just using his memory.

– Leonardo da Vinci
http://quote.robertgenn.com/auth_search.php?authid=243

This was discussed here earlier but there are some new studies which confirm the earlier studies.

• Sanitizers — Handwashing>

“What we are saying is that these e-coli could survive in the concentrations that we use in our (consumer formulated) antibacterial soaps,” Aiello said. “What it means for consumers is that we need to be aware of what’s in the products. The soaps containing triclosan used in the community setting are no more effective than plain soap at preventing infectious illness symptoms, as well as reducing bacteria on the hands.”

The study, “Consumer Antibacterial Soaps: Effective or Just Risky”" appears in the August edition of Clinical Infectious Diseases. The team looked at 27 studies conducted between 1980 and 2006, and found that soaps containing triclosan within the range of concentrations commonly used in the community setting (0.1 to 0.45 percent wt/vol) were no more effective than plain soaps. Triclosan is used in higher concentrations in hospitals and other clinical settings, and may be more effective at reducing illness and bacteria.

• http://www.physorg.com/news106418144.html

follow-up to

• Website Available with Flooding Information

• Disinfectants for camp, field, and household

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I think the issue of alcohol and alcohol control in the Unorganized Borough is very important. It is also an issue which has had very little comprehensive analysis and evaluation by communities. It is not yet a major focus of the discussions here because no one has wanted to pursue this. I have, however, been adding references to Connotea, the On-line health environment (biocultural science and adaptation) bibliography [or see the feed in the sidebar] for others to examine.

I also run across items to post here that may be of interest. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to fully develop them as topics (as they deserve) so here is a listing from my backlog. [skip to Listing ]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IMHO [My opinion, for what it's worth]
In all the time that I have lived in the Unorganized Borough, it seems we have policy, politics, and governance based upon “I know what’s best” that is, based upon belief and not evidence. See earlier discussions linked at

http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/pay-for-performance/
What is supposed to work in schools, similarly with alcohol control and Wall Street, seems to operate on belief rather than an examination of what is and then formulating testable ideas on what, if anything, needs doing. Belief is an important factor in “what works”. However, critical thinking and careful use of statistics, among other attributes of sciencing such as multiple working hypotheses, are important to keep us all honest. In the situation of pandemic fatal or crippling disease, wishful thinking or “denial” won’t keep us, at all.

and
Evaluate alternative actions http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/07/26/ evaluate-alternative-actions/

and

a strong new current in American life — the culture of assertion, which increasingly pushes logical argument out of our public conversation. According to this schema, things are true because I believe they are true and you have to respect that, because it’s what I believe…. Tim Rutten, quoted here

and

The irresistible power of magical thinking
New research demonstrates that habits of so-called magical thinking — the belief, for instance, that wishing harm on a loathed colleague or relative might make him sick — are far more common than people acknowledge.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/24/healthscience/snmag.php
http://www.boingboing.net/2007/01/23/psychology_of_magica.html

There’s no better example than the City of Bethel proposing alcohol sales as a means of getting the city out of its deep money troubles (oh, and alleviating problems related to alcohol consumption).

Instead, there are proven methods for thinking about issues which can set aside the self-centered emotional displays and ad hominem attacks in order to generate evidence for and against a proposed action or decision. One method is to set about disproving a “negative hypothesis”. It is easier to find cases which disprove a hypothesis. In addition, if one works hard to disprove the opposite idea to what one actually wants, it is easier not to play favorites.

I would like to see someone test this null hypothesis (come up with evidence against):

H₀: Alcohol abuse is socially acceptable in Bethel and the Y-K Delta

Look for evidence such as the radio station’s playlists (how many songs about drinking, drunkenness, looking for “girls” despite our high rate of child abuse); joking; number of employees and salaries at Yukon Kuskokwim Health Corp. that deal directly (behavioral health) or indirectly (emergency room, community health aides, clerks, dentists) with alcohol abuse; number of employees, salaries, and costs associated with the correctional and judicial system; number of police and state troopers stationed and salaries and equipment; number of times “I was intoxicated” is used for mitigating circumstances; number of times people use “drinking” in the same sentence as “party”; number of times people who don’t drink allow those who are into their house; number of missions and church workers who deal directly or indirectly; number of school district employees and salaries who deal directly (counselors) and indirectly (teachers); et al.; number of grants and overhead that deal directly or indirectly; etc.

Additional Readings: (My complete list of Readings for Sciencing is also trapped in the backlog. But I promise that will be next. http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/08/04/readings-for-quantitative-analysis-and-interpretation/)

Platt (1964) [pdf file] Strong inference. Science, 146, 347-353.

Chamberlin, TC (1965) [pdf file] The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science, 148, 754-759.

Cohen (1990) [pdf file] Things I have learned (so far). American Psychologist, 45, 1304-1312.

Loftus, G. (1996) [pdf file] Psychology will be a much better science when we change the way we analyze data. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 5, 161-171.

Wickens, T. D. (2002) [pdf file] Elementary Signal Detection Theory. New York: Oxford University Press. [Chap 1; Chap 2 (sections 2.1-2.3); Chap. 3 (sections 3.1-3.3)]

Howell, D.C. (2002). Statistical Methods for Psychology, Chapter 18. Resampling and Nonparametric Approaches to Data (pp. 692-719).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Listing

City council introduces alcohol delivery site
http://deltadiscovery.com/insidebethelnews/insidebethelnews.html
by Shane Iverson
retrieved 10/18/2005

The Bethel City Council narrowly voted in favor of introducing an ordinance aimed at creating a city controlled Alcohol Delivery Site. Ordnance #05-16, titled “Bethel Alcohol Delivery Site,” calls for the City to create a single site for which all alcohol must be imported to and picked up from.

The intention of the bill is to reduce access of alcohol to residents of dry villages, as well as to Bethel residents convicted of violent felonies or other alcohol related crimes. After hearing over 2 hours of public testimony, the City Council voted 4-3 in favor of introducing the ordinance.
….
Voting in favor was Mayor Hugh Dyment, council members Thor Williams, Dan Leinberger and newly-elected council member Mary Kenick. Opposition votes came from council members David Trantham, Andy McGowan and Acting Vice-Mayor Tundy Rodgers.
….
The most common argument was that the availability of alcohol in Bethel and in outlying villages had devastating consequences and ensuring that only responsible Bethel citizens could import alcohol may be part of the solution.
….
Most speakers sited a belief that tighter city controls and monitoring of alcohol importation will reduce crime and other social ails. A similar delivery site in Barrow immediately reduced crime rates by 5%. The region’s high rates of domestic violence, sexual assault, deaths by homicide, suicide and accidents, and Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) were the most common concerns.

Though few believe bootlegging activities would be eradicated, the hope of these citizens was that potential black market dealers will find the business more difficult and less lucrative. “I have heard the bootleggers are very weary that they may be out of business,” commented Sipary in reference to the delivery site.

Members of the Alaska State Troopers and the Bethel Police Department were on hand to support the ordinance. The common sentiment was that they are over-burdened by the current level and nature of crime linked directly to alcohol abuse.
….
All three of the council members who voted against the motion sited the plan had not been sufficiently developed.
….
Mayor Dyment, who introduced the ordinance to the City Council, admitted there is more work to be done before it passes. “I can already think of three amendments to add,” he conceded, but added that by introducing the ordinance the Council can now focus on a more comprehensive plan.

Council member Williams added it is the job of the city manager to develop many of the specific details.
….
Exactly how the city would pay for the delivery site is unclear.
….
“There is no way we know if this is going to work, but we’re never going to know if we don’t try,” concluded Lt. Achee.

Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention
http://alcalc.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/35/6/628

Review Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention.: By Harold Holder. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1999

“Within the community network, certain interacting subsystems have been identified, which are natural groupings of factors that research has shown to be important in the understanding of alcohol use. These are: (1) consumption subsystem: alcohol use as part of routine community life; (2) retail sales subsystem: alcohol availability and promotion; (3) formal regulation and control subsystem: rules, administration, and enforcement; (4) social normals subsystem: community values and social influences that affect drinking; (5) legal sanctions subsystem: prohibitive uses of alcohol; (6) social, economic, and health consequences subsystem: community identification of, and organized responses to, alcohol problems.

A chapter is dedicated to each of these subsystems. Most communities will have some data which can be fed into the analysis, while other elements will be more speculative. In the end, it should be possible for the analyst to predict the outcome of changes to any or indeed all of these subsystems. The arguments advanced are compelling and should encourage those responsible for developing alcohol strategies to look at these components and either develop their own computer model or consult with those already in existence. There are several illustrations of the SimCom simulation in action. A lingering question which remains unanswered is how to establish the credibility of this approach, so that it gains acceptance as part of the routine planning process within a community. Public and political acceptance and support for any system of intervention is crucial and may be hard to achieve particularly when pet theories or Corporate interests are being challenged or threatened. Unfortunately, it may always be easier to pursue familiar pathways, however unrewarding. In Holder’s conclusions, ‘Final Thoughts from a Heretic’, he states that the field of alcohol problem prevention should abandon high risk and target group approaches. ‘We will never purposefully prevent nor substantially reduce alcohol-involved problems by simply treating heavy dependent drinkers’. Likewise identification and targeting of groups within the community, typically young people, will, he believes, result in a similar failure.

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs)
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/543758_print (free registration required)

Diagnosis of Alcohol Dependence, Hugh Myrick, MD
Medscape Psychiatry & Mental Health. 2006;11(2) ©2006 Medscape
retrieved 08/30/2006

Introduction
Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are a subset of substance-related disorders characterized by either recurrent, excessive drinking that impairs function and leads to negative physical, legal, or social sequelae (alcohol abuse); or by physiologic dependence — with associated tolerance and withdrawal — and continued use despite knowledge of the physiologic and social psychological ramifications of continued drinking (alcohol dependence).

AUDs — often collectively termed alcoholism

Was It Alcohol or Anti-Semitism Talking?
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-drinking1aug01,0,7511382.story

Doctors disagree on whether Mel Gibson’s alleged comments reflected actual beliefs.
By Thomas H. Maugh II, LA Times Staff Writer, August 1, 2006

Behavior experts were split Monday on whether the alleged anti-Semitic comments of Mel Gibson were a reflection of his beliefs or simply gibberish induced by intoxication — the alcohol talking, in other words.

Remarks such as those Gibson is alleged to have made are “not a product of alcohol,” … The content of any comments is in a person’s head, “in his opinion structure.”

Others, however, argue that gross intoxication can lead to a free association of ideas that are unrelated to an individual’s true character… “Basically, the person talks gibberish … and can behave in a very bizarre way,” …”They might not even be certain of what they are saying. They don’t understand what they are saying, and they don’t mean what they are saying,” Johnson said.

That argument has persisted in the profession for many years and is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, experts said.

…research has shown that at moderate levels (the legal limit for driving is 0.08% in California), alcohol releases what are known as prepotent responses — beliefs, thoughts and actions that an individual would normally try to suppress.

“Alcohol doesn’t produce new behaviors,” he said. “It releases things that people believe or know…. It exaggerates the personality of the individual.”… There is no shortage of expert opinions on the drinker who is highly intoxicated: Sussman cautioned that some drunks deliberately say things they don’t believe in order to be belligerent or to produce a particular response. [...]

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Report Estimates Warming’s Toll on Alaska
By Lori Townsend, APRN
ANCHORAGE, AK (2007-02-14) A University of Alaska think tank provided a glimpse of a report today that for the first time calculates the cost of maintaining Alaska’s public infrastructure in a changing climate. © Copyright 2007, APRN

Listen here (mp3 format)

The report was finally published (notice from WHAT’S UP - July 4, 2007 - Compiled Weekly by Peg Tileston on behalf of the Alaska Women’s Environmental Network (AWEN), Alaska Center for the Environment (ACE), and Alaska Conservation Alliance (ACA). View list information and archives, visit

• http://lists.onenw.org/lists/info/whatsup

There hasn’t previously been a chance to review the report. From the news accounts it doesn’t sound like they included an estimate for all the previous decade’s worth of projects which must be re-built or which should never have been built, had the state listened to those of us that suggested climate change should be factored into state and federal funded development. I tried nearly 10 years ago to get rural landfill permitting to include such evaluation. It was obvious, too obvious, then that environmental change had affected roads, dumps, airports, barge landings, fuel depots, schools, sewage lagoons, new and old housing, etc., etc. The state didn’t think global warming was real and anyway, as a state employee, I was too thoughtful.

It is unlikely the model is an estimate of total costs, but rather the easier calculation of dollars (cash) expenditures. However, each community could start now to do a total cost analysis (for the next 10 and 50 years). It can be done without itself costing much money.

HOW MUCH MIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE ADD TO FUTURE COSTS FOR PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE? is the latest report from the Institute for Social & Economic Research (ISER). Scientists expect Alaska’s climate to get warmer over time—and the changing climate could make it roughly 10% to 20% more expensive to build and maintain public infrastructure in Alaska between now and 2030 and 10% more expensive between now and 2080. These are preliminary estimates of how much climate warming could increase the future costs for roads, harbors, schools, the power grid, sewer systems, and all the other public infrastructure that keeps Alaska functioning. A warming climate will damage Alaska’s infrastructure—and make it more expensive to maintain and replace—because that infrastructure was designed for a cold climate. These preliminary estimates of how much infrastructure costs might increase are from a model ISER researchers developed with help from faculty at UAA’s School of Engineering and the University of Colorado. Even without climate change, the costs of maintaining and replacing federal, state, and local infrastructure in Alaska are considerable—an estimated $32 billion between now and 2030 and $56 billion between now and 2080. Damage from climate change could add $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion to infrastructure costs between now and 2030 and $5.6 billion to $7.6 billion between now and 2080, depending on the level of climate change and assuming that government agencies adapt infrastructure to changing conditions.

Unfortunately, everything is in pdf format from

• “Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate Change” http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Home/ResearchAreas/climatechange.htm

Download the full report
Download the 8 page summary
Download the power point presentation
Download ICICLE Program #1
Download ICICLE Program #2
Download ICICLE Program #3

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Site Search Tags: ISER, UAA, infrastructure, cost, APRN, global+warming, climate+change, delta, erosion, permafrost, Whats+up

A follow-up to Sanitizers - Handwashing which also has revised cautions about children and sanitizing gels, especially for businesses New employer business preparedness resource

Dirty money?
UPDATED: 2007-06-20 17:21:32 MST
By HELEN BRANSWELL, CP

TORONTO (CP) — The people who coined the terms filthy lucre and dirty money may have been on to something.

Swiss researchers have reported that influenza viruses can survive — alive and potentially infectious — on bank notes for up to 17 days in some cases.

It’s not known what portion of influenza transmission is due to the touching of contaminated surfaces with hands which then transport viruses to the vulnerable mucous membranes of the nose or mouth. And this study can’t answer that question….

“When you see that the virus is still alive for several days, I can’t imagine that it does not infect. I’m sure that it can infect,” Thomas, a virologist at the Swiss National Centre for Influenza, said… “It’s still alive. And it’s alive in quantities that can infect.”

But a Toronto-based infectious diseases expert said she isn’t convinced.

“The problem with all of the environmental studies of influenza and other pathogens is the fact that these bacteria and viruses survive in the environment doesn’t mean they are transmitted by the environment,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, head of infection control at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital.

… But laboratory experiments, done under controlled conditions, don’t always reflect what happens in the real world.

So the group tried a third phase of the work, swabbing still more bills with “nasopharyngeal secretions” — yes, that’s snot — from 14 flu-infected children.

At 24 hours, live viruses were retrieved from 50 per cent of the bills. At 48 hours, there was live virus found on 30 per cent. [...]

Read the discussion here,
http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/National/2007/06/20/4276745.html

don’t lick your fingers to count bills, and don’t forget to Do it in your sleeve

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