[N.B. thimk] How effective will Alaska windfall rebates be?

[thimk, nota bene: my 2 cent opinion]

Senate Bill 289 would allow middle-income Alaskans to get grants and loans to make their homes more energy efficient. The bill is sponsored by Senator Lyman Hoffman of Bethel.

This will certainly be of help to many homeowners and to landlords such as Sen. Hoffman. I’m not so sure it can be effective in existing rental housing if landlords aren’t interested in upgrading. Bethel has no minimum standards for housing safety, even though it collects taxes on rentals. Thus, even “new” housing -may never become more economic for tenants [moldy or lacks insulation or is packed with electrical heating tape because the rehabbed ASHA (Alaska State Housing Authority) buildings don't have reality-based pipe systems (this is a cold region, folks, without standards for the flush-haul system of water delivery and sewage pick-up)]

True Voices left an interesting comment at an APRN.org story on the Alaska senate bill to give rebates to make middle-income homes “greener”.

I hope that this bill will also help in moving up or move away from the ever eroding river banks… very old wiring, old paper style plywoods, all windows cracked & drafty, etc. And can’t QUALIFY to fix or get a livable dwelling, still trying to be independent.

The comment is a succinct summary of what many face. If communities must be moved, the entire community is best moved together (the Davis Inlet to Natuashish incremental move had problems, especially for the older people, Remaining Innu of Davis Inlet feeling Abandoned). But TrueV points out what many individuals also face– imminent house collapse. The “home equity mortgage” bad loans do not work in many parts of the rural areas (housing may be expensive but it isn’t worth much as collateral). Older people in rural and frontier areas frequently don’t have excess/any retirement income. As in Bethel, there may not be any elder housing for 100s of miles (not even for assisted living or nursing homes). Weatherization and rehab funding often works best for situations outside of rural and remote places, with greater population density and civic resources.

The regulations written for emergency housing and relocation at the federal level (e.g., assistance from USDA Rural Development or Natural Resources Conservation Service) haven’t yet been translated into terms that allow rural areas to receive funding. For example, Homeland Security and Army Corps money might be applied if a highway collapse cuts off a town from its grocery stores. But we haven’t yet pointed out how collapsed stairways or river channel siltation also does the same thing, to the same proportion of people, even though the groceries are hunted. Electrical systems are critical homeland infrastructure– whether on a household or a city basis; the relative impact is the same. The applied funding and expertise isn’t. The long-term costs of not attending to adequate housing are so much more than the short-term expenses.

Thus, house by house a community melts into the river and initiates a constant family by family move into ever more crowded homes, ready themselves to collapse.

It may “take a village” to raise a child– a future citizen to assume statewide, national, and global responsibilities. But we don’t have genuine communities when older people must leave home or be trapped in substandard conditions.

How ever did the simple realization that a stitch in time saves nine become the regulatory: don’t call us if it’s less than a 500 million dollar or 500 thousand population crisis?

---

Site Search Tags: USACE, Army+Corps, energy, weatherization, elderly, relocation, erosion, FEMA, HUD, opinion, APRN.org, emergency, USDA, NRCS, legislation, aging+in+place, climate+change, Davis+Inlet, Innu, Canada, Natuashish, note+bene

Mass disease pass, 2007

One of the Tundra Teachers ** I read was able to take advantage of the flu shot clinic this weekend. Actually, it was the mass dispensing exercise to demonstrate disaster preparation in the region, held for the second year.

• Does mass dispensing exercise prove disaster readiness
• Illustrations of public involvement (risk communication) related to H5N1 avian flu or pandemic preparedness

Unbelievably, the 2nd prize again this year is a pass to the “emergency shelter” which still doesn’t exist. First prize is the free shot, which this year should be an effective shot (last year it wasn’t sure the vaccines had been kept at the proper temperature so, letters were issued to come in again later. The elders who go to the senior center will get their flu shots next week, just before Thanksgiving. Elders don’t get flu shots earlier in the season, depending on how much vaccine the state sends out to us.)

I can see how someone last year must have thought it was “more authentic” to issue a pretend pass to a non-existent shelter; unacceptable but plausible. But, again? Who has the authority to declare an Infectious Disease Outbreak? Why is there a non-existent shelter for disease outbreaks and not for flooding, electrical explosion, chemical fire? What happens if a member of your family or a neighbor didn’t get a flu shot at the mass dispensing– Will they be denied access to the non-existent shelter? What if I lend my card to an elder? Can I bring my active TB?

How effective are official false hope and rumors in risk communication, preparedness, and disaster mitigation? What will you E-mail the Governor?

“Sunday, November 4, 2007
Get a Flu Shot

They were giving out free flu shots at the National Guard Armory yesterday, so Avery and I went and got one. The interesting thing about this is that once we got done with our flu shots, we received an interesting card. It’s a business card from the State of Alaska and the YKHC (Yukon Kuskokwim Health Corporation) and this is what it says….”

http://alishaadventures.blogspot.com/2007/11/get-flu-shot.html

see previous

• More questions to ask: church responsibilities in case of pandemics
• Bird Flu: Communicating the Risk, Sandman & Lanard
• Getting Results from Your Experts
• Resources to Understand Epidemiology & Disease Ecology
• British teachers use Suffolk H5N1 outbreak
• Top 50 reading list for emergency management

[Tundra Teachers** are a mix RSS feed in the sidebar here and individually at the Edublogs site So many teachers qualify this year (blogs from teachers in the Arctic and sub-Arctic) that I am behind in posting links.]

---

Site Search Tags: flu+shot, armory, mass+disaster, shelter, Alaska, Bethel, planning, training, disaster+mitigation, YKHC, ADHSS, risk, communication, mass+vaccination, seasonal+flu, emergency+shelter, Sarah+Palin, readiness, cultural+factors, human+factors, Elders, older+Americans, senior+center

Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation?

Even if readers don’t wish to present a paper at this conference, the question is well worth considering by communities. What are your priorities as family or community?

Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation?

The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the University of Oslo, with the support of the Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) project, announce a two day international conference to be held on 7 and 8 of February 2008 at the Royal Geographical Society in London. The title of the conference is “Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation?” The overall objective of this conference is to consider strategies for adapting to climate change, in particular to explore the potential barriers to adaptation that may limit the ability of societies to adapt to climate change and to identify opportunities for overcoming these barriers. The conference is aimed at researchers and practitioners with an interest in understanding how societies adapt to climate change.

Keynote speakers include: Garry Peterson, McGill University; Benjamin Orlove, University of California; Susanne Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) See:
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/programme3/adaptation2008/index.html

see also

Adaptation Planning in Arctic Communities

Less talk, more action on climate change

On-line health environment (biocultural science and adaptation) bibliography

---

Site Search Tags: climate+change, adaptation, biocultural+adaptation, NCAR, priorities

How bad arithmetic can win friends, influence people, and hide the harm

When is a per cent nonsense?

Thursday morning the 27th (tomorrow, 10-11 AM AKT) KYUK radio will have a one-hour call-in show to discuss the ballot measure for the City of Bethel voters. This is an overdue discussion, occurring just in time before next Tuesday’s election.

The ballot measure is called Proposition One. It is the City’s second proposition to be called that, but the first to actually be on the ballot for voting.

The actual proposition is–

CITY OF BETHEL PROPOSITION NO. 1 ONE PERCENT INCREASE IN BETHEL SALES AND USE TAX

Shall the City of Bethel increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percent (total tax of 6%) for a period of 2 years followed by a decrease of a half (.5) percent (total tax 5.5%) which shall sunset on October 2, 2027?

YES

NO

Several of the existing city councillors and the designated mayor, the city attorney, several of those running for city council next Tuesday (but not all), a member of the radio board of directors, the YKHC wellness department, the KYUK news editor, plus others have stated this proposition says a swimming pool will be built out of the 1 cent increase for every dollar spent for food or heating fuel.

How can one consider this proposition prior to voting?

• Q. where do “swimming pool” and “rec center” appear in the proposition?

In fact, nowhere does the proposition say how the City Council will spend the money received. No amount of “we know where the taxes will be spent” can encumber the money for anything the Council doesn’t authorize.

• Q. How much will the new tax be, if approved?

1. increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percent
and
2. (total tax of 6%)

The current sales tax is 5% or 5 cents for every dollar, added to the sales total.

1. An increase in sales tax of 1% (one per cent) converted to decimal form is 0.01 times 0.05 dollars or 0.01 times 5 cents. This equals 5.0005 cents per dollar in sales.

and

2. An increase in total tax to 6% means 1 cent must be added to the existing 5 cents of every dollar. How much is one cent of 5 cents? that is, what percent is one out of 5? A twenty per cent increase in the existing sales tax will equal 6 cents per dollar in sales tax.

Think of this another way. You find the cost of doing business has gone up 20%. You now sell a half-gallon of milk for $5.00. What will the new price of milk be? [20% times $5 = $1.00 Add this to the current price. Therefore $6.00 is the new price]

• Q. How much will the new tax be after two years for the next 18 years, if approved?

1. decrease of a half (.5) percent
and
2. (total tax 5.5%)

The 2009 sales tax will be 5.0005%. A 0.5 per cent equals 0.005 in decimal. The 2010 to 2027 sales tax is ______

and

The 2009 sales tax will be 6.0%. A half per cent equals 0.005 in decimal. The 2010 to 2027 sale tax is _______

If the proposition passes, how much money will go to the swimming pool/rec center?

$________________ but also $______________

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It doesn’t take a college statistics course, like the one the mayor had, to multiply decimals because this is part of primary school arithmetic.

Suppose the proposition had instead been worded–

Shall the City of Bethel increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percentage point (from 5 cents per dollar to 6 cents per dollar or total tax rate of 6%) for a period of 2 years followed by a decrease of a half (.5) percentage point (total tax rate of 5.5%) which shall sunset on October 2, 2027?

There would be only one tax increase to be voted on, not two mutually exclusive increases.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There are other issues which should be considered before communal action is taken. Will the proposed action do what is intended or solve the stated problem? Are there better actions to take, including not taking any action? What are the total social, cultural, economic impacts (good or bad) of the proposed action? Do we have the correct problem defined?

The proposition states two different tax increases (1% of the existing rate and from 5% to 6%). Either makes a cost for retailers to re-calibrate their registers. Many other retailers do not use a computer for calculation or have small individual sales (under $100.00). The ordinance would increase the burden to small businesses and/or to residents of Bethel. Retailers would either have to overcharge customers (illegal) or pay the additional tax themselves.

The costs of sales tax processing by the City of Bethel would increase as would the auditing costs of local businesses and the legal pursuit of any delinquent taxes.

The original ordinance proposer (Councilor Leinberger) should have specified the annual (years 1 through 20)
* increase in revenues to be expected, including the projected population and economic condition
* increase in costs to the City
* increase in costs to the retailers (small and large)
* increase in cost of living to the consumer

The proposed tax increase will not go to a swimming pool. But if the increase in sales tax was tagged specifically to the operation and maintenance of a swimming pool and structure for 20 years, the total cost analysis of the pool/rec center must also be included for consideration (sustainability plus total costs to consumers). Would an increase to 5.005% even cover the costs of implementing the tax? Part of this analysis needs to examine the change in demographics for the next 20 years. We’ve lost over 600 people (out migration) in the past 12 months.

Are we even sure a tax increase, of whichever size the courts decide on, is important enough to charge the elderly, the fixed income, and the poor? We currently have double-digit unemployment (this figure only counts those registered for unemployment locally, not the additional people who don’t have unemployment benefits).

For example, adult proponents of the tax increases say the money is needed for a swimming pool rec center (in addition to the schools’ gyms, the cultural center, the youth center, and the library. We also have a home-grown small business fitness center.) so children have something to do to keep them off the streets. Not too long ago, the 4-H centennial project was for young people to identify the greatest needs in their community. When the youngsters spoke among themselves they expressed the overwhelming need for “safe houses”, places to go with sober adult supervision when home got to be too much.

Another reason given for the pool tax was to encourage new families to move to Bethel. The city already disbanded elder services. For over a decade we’ve been promised an assisted living home for our people to age in place, at home, instead of in Anchorage where one can die unattended even by staff. Would you move on the basis of wishful thinking? Yes, many people do. But don’t we deserve better, a genuine sustainable community instead of the one we wish we had?

Your turn. Add your 2 cents worth–

• Please find any arithmetic errors I made above.
• How would you have worded the sales tax proposition for honest assessment by voters?
• Are there any projects you think deserve a sales tax increase? What would you propose?

---

Site Search Tags: CoB, Bethel, Alaska, KYUK, election, elders, cost+of+living

Where is… the lifeboat in the great Arctic Melt-rush?

2007. En klimasafari click to visit site and enlarged image

The older woman in the front, left of the life raft is in the pose of the raft’s namesake (Think)

This is one of several thought provoking images (and 1 of 2 maps) from the artist Rolf Grovens that can be found at

• http://www.groven.no/rolf/

It is a map of the North Sea (Atlantic), Scandinavian countries with the glow (from diesel generated electricity?) through the haze of petrochemical extraction.

Do we sail on, “unencumbered by the thought process”?
Maybe with the open Arctic transportation corridor we can get cheap oil from Scotland?

Are we all in this boat together?

I wish Google did Norwegian-English translation. Here is the caption but what is on the bluff top?

Avbildet: Prinsesse Ingrid Alexandra, miljøvernminister Helen Bjørnøy, Bellona-leder Frederic Hauge, investor Petter Stordalen, alpinist Kjetil Andrè Aamot, Stortingsrepresentant Inga Marte Thorkildsen, værdame Siri Kalvig og FrP-formann Siv Jensen

One of his other maps was featured at StrangeMaps, which intrigued me to find others he did.

• http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2007/07/27/155-the-norwegian-drop/
• #155 The Norwegian Drop

[Compare his Norwegian version of 2007. Tre Kvinner http://www.groven.no/rolf/previewpages/previewpage_3kvinner.php with that of the New Yorker’s Anita KunzID: 124159, Published in The New Yorker July 30, 2007

---

Site Search Tags: nordicitie, lifeboat, Arctic, ice+cap, melting, oil, energy, artist, StrangeMaps, Norway, North+Sea, Atlantic, oilfields, Melt-rush, Melt+Rush

KYUK Friday Call-in references for alcohol and genetics

Today’s morning talk hour discussed alcohol (again). I said I would post a couple of references for those asking if some groups of people are genetically programmed to abuse alcohol.

There are two significant articles (more but two to start with) that should be considered by anyone. These articles are listed in the scientific bookmarks collection at (see sidebar) Alcohol control articles at Connotea

The first article is

Neurogenetic adaptive mechanisms in alcoholism by CR Cloninger

Science 24 April 1987:
Vol. 236. no. 4800, pp. 410 - 416
DOI: 10.1126/science.2882604 Science, Vol 236, Issue 4800, 410-416
Copyright © 1987 by American Association for the Advancement of Science

ABSTRACT
Clinical, genetic, and neuropsychopharmacological studies of developmental factors in alcoholism are providing a better understanding of the neurobiological bases of personality and learning. Studies of the adopted-away children of alcoholics show that the predisposition to initiate alcohol-seeking behavior is genetically different from susceptibility to loss of control after drinking begins. Alcohol-seeking behavior is a special case of exploratory appetitive behavior and involves different neurogenetic processes than do susceptibility to behavioral tolerance and dependence on the antianxiety or sedative effects of alcohol. Three dimensions of personality have been described that may reflect individual differences in brain systems modulating the activation, maintenance, and inhibition of behavioral responses to the effects of alcohol and other environmental stimuli. These personality traits distinguish alcoholics with different patterns of behavioral, neurophysiological, and neuropharmacological responses to alcohol.

The entire article can be downloaded here. It is a technical article but not difficult to understand.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/236/4800/410

The second article is

Reward Deficiency Syndrome by Kenneth Blum, John G. Cull, Eric R. Braverman and David E. Comings

American Scientist, Volume 84, Issue 2, p.132-145, 03/1996
Bibliographic Code: 1996AmSci..84..132B

In 1990 one of us published with his colleagues a paper suggesting that a specific genetic anomaly was linked to alcoholism (Blum et al. 1990). Unfortunately it was often erroneously reported that they had found the “alcoholism gene,” implying that there is a one-to-one relation between a gene and a specific behavior. Such misinterpretations are common-readers may recall accounts of an “obesity gene,” or a “personality gene.” Needless to say, there is no such thing as a specific gene for alcoholism, obesity or a particular type of personality. However, it would be naive to assert the opposite, that these aspects of human behavior are not associated with any particular genes. Rather the issue at hand is to understand how certain genes and behavioral traits are connected.

The article is easily available here–

• http://www.recoveryemporium.com/AmSci.htm

There was also an interesting poem read by another listener, “My name is Mr Alcohol” which is 20 years old or so. I couldn’t find that poem on-line nor any source for the poet and publication. Can anyone else help?

---

Site Search Tags: KYUK, Connotea, alcohol, AAAS, Sigma+Xi, biocultural, genetics, adaptation, American+Scientist, ADHD, thrill-seeking, risk, fathers+sons

Small Island Developing States, Fiji and NW Territories, where is YK Delta?

For over a decade I have pointed out the commonality in environmental and cultural issues between the Yukon Kuskokwim delta villages and the small island nations, especially those in the other side of the Pacific basin. Formally, they are called Small Island Developing States. The formal SIDS have established sustainable policies, appropriate technology, and world-class community-based science all of which should be models for Alaska. (for example, see the Fiji Map Server in the sidebar,
Manuals Available to Assist Communities with Solid Waste Planning and Education, and 1918 pandemic in Polynesia and Fiji (small island developing states)

Alaska state and local governments still don’t seem to understand this. For example, Bethel has no plans for dealing with changing sea levels and loss of tundra ponds. The state until this year, refused to consider the impact of warming climate on village and city infrastructure when permitting landfills. On the other hand, the city manager of Emmonak has been trying for several years to get assistance from state and university to develop appropriate electrical generation technology, based upon the traditional Yukon River fishwheel, to end their dependence on fossil fuels. I applied for a Denali Commission / Rasmuson grant last year, about $10,000 (sic, ten-thousand US dollars, not 10 million) to test a dry sanitation technology developed in “third-world” countries for use in our semi-arid region. The project to improve sanitation and reduce water consumption was deemed outside the agencies’ programmatic interests.

Canada, fortunately, thinks otherwise.

TORONTO, Canada (The Catholic Register) – An ice-fisher from Sachs Harbour, Northwest Territories, and a sugar-cane farmer from the Fiji Islands have more in common than some may think.

Tropical islands in the south Pacific and the polar regions are two areas that stand to face the most immediate and dramatic effects of global warming, said David Hik, a biology professor at the University of Alberta in western Canada.

Island countries are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, while melting ice poses its own set of challenges to the Arctic, said Hik, director of the Canadian chapter for the International Polar Year, a two-year project allowing researchers from 63 countries to collaborate and gain insight into the Arctic and Antarctic.

“(Global warming) is not isolated by geography, the whole world is connected through the hydrological system,” said Hik. “Changes in the polar region of the Arctic have effects in other parts of the world.” …

“There’s always been a real recognition of our diocese that research and understanding of the Arctic is important.”

The diocese sits on the board for the Churchill Northern Studies Centre, a research center for Arctic studies co-founded by former Churchill-Hudson Bay Bishop Omer Robidoux. The center encourages aboriginal people to take courses so there is some understanding between science and local knowledge. [and vice versa, mpb]

And preparedness isn’t just about “don’t panic; cook your bird”. The Canadian churches seem to understand this. Our local churches have a role in preparedness as well, in addition to that needed for the Guard in the Iraq war.

I suppose we’d better ask, Where is… Bethel, Canada?

“What I fear is these changes could be so rapid, the upheaval could be very disruptive for these communities, but that requires being prepared, having good information and sufficient time to plan,” Hik said, explaining the better integrated faith communities are into the social, cultural and spiritual life of the local communities, the better they will be able to help.

“A strong community that can make good decisions on how to prepare for change and adapt to change will be able to maintain its culture,” he added. Read more [...]

• Culture in northern Canadian dioceses threatened by melting ice cap By Sara Loftson, 8/24/2007, Republished with permission by Catholic Online from The Catholic Register ( www.catholicregister.org ), the largest circulation national Catholic newspaper in Canada, a Catholic Online Preferred Publishing Partner.
  http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.php?id=25151

see related posts at Grassroots Science, YKAlaska
Preparedness network for non-profits and church-based groups,
Top 50 reading list for emergency management
Where is… Bethel water?
What impact will Iraq war call-up have
Where is Bethel (year 2050)
Where is Bethel… 2040
Where is… Bethel coastline 22nd century

Add this to Bookmarks:

---

Site Search Tags: Emmonak, Yukon, Denali+Commission, me+tech, SIDS, Fiji, churches, climate+change, global+warming, Canada, ethics, polar+ice, Iraq, Pacific, appropriate+technology, vernacular+engineering, TEK, traditional+environmental+knowledge

Alcohol topics backlog

I think the issue of alcohol and alcohol control in the Unorganized Borough is very important. It is also an issue which has had very little comprehensive analysis and evaluation by communities. It is not yet a major focus of the discussions here because no one has wanted to pursue this. I have, however, been adding references to Connotea, the On-line health environment (biocultural science and adaptation) bibliography [or see the feed in the sidebar] for others to examine.

I also run across items to post here that may be of interest. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to fully develop them as topics (as they deserve) so here is a listing from my backlog. [skip to Listing ]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IMHO [My opinion, for what it's worth]
In all the time that I have lived in the Unorganized Borough, it seems we have policy, politics, and governance based upon “I know what’s best” that is, based upon belief and not evidence. See earlier discussions linked at

http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/pay-for-performance/
What is supposed to work in schools, similarly with alcohol control and Wall Street, seems to operate on belief rather than an examination of what is and then formulating testable ideas on what, if anything, needs doing. Belief is an important factor in “what works”. However, critical thinking and careful use of statistics, among other attributes of sciencing such as multiple working hypotheses, are important to keep us all honest. In the situation of pandemic fatal or crippling disease, wishful thinking or “denial” won’t keep us, at all.

and
Evaluate alternative actions http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/07/26/ evaluate-alternative-actions/

and

a strong new current in American life — the culture of assertion, which increasingly pushes logical argument out of our public conversation. According to this schema, things are true because I believe they are true and you have to respect that, because it’s what I believe…. Tim Rutten, quoted here

and

The irresistible power of magical thinking
New research demonstrates that habits of so-called magical thinking — the belief, for instance, that wishing harm on a loathed colleague or relative might make him sick — are far more common than people acknowledge.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/24/healthscience/snmag.php
http://www.boingboing.net/2007/01/23/psychology_of_magica.html

There’s no better example than the City of Bethel proposing alcohol sales as a means of getting the city out of its deep money troubles (oh, and alleviating problems related to alcohol consumption).

Instead, there are proven methods for thinking about issues which can set aside the self-centered emotional displays and ad hominem attacks in order to generate evidence for and against a proposed action or decision. One method is to set about disproving a “negative hypothesis”. It is easier to find cases which disprove a hypothesis. In addition, if one works hard to disprove the opposite idea to what one actually wants, it is easier not to play favorites.

I would like to see someone test this null hypothesis (come up with evidence against):

H₀: Alcohol abuse is socially acceptable in Bethel and the Y-K Delta

Look for evidence such as the radio station’s playlists (how many songs about drinking, drunkenness, looking for “girls” despite our high rate of child abuse); joking; number of employees and salaries at Yukon Kuskokwim Health Corp. that deal directly (behavioral health) or indirectly (emergency room, community health aides, clerks, dentists) with alcohol abuse; number of employees, salaries, and costs associated with the correctional and judicial system; number of police and state troopers stationed and salaries and equipment; number of times “I was intoxicated” is used for mitigating circumstances; number of times people use “drinking” in the same sentence as “party”; number of times people who don’t drink allow those who are into their house; number of missions and church workers who deal directly or indirectly; number of school district employees and salaries who deal directly (counselors) and indirectly (teachers); et al.; number of grants and overhead that deal directly or indirectly; etc.

Additional Readings: (My complete list of Readings for Sciencing is also trapped in the backlog. But I promise that will be next. http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/08/04/readings-for-quantitative-analysis-and-interpretation/)

Platt (1964) [pdf file] Strong inference. Science, 146, 347-353.

Chamberlin, TC (1965) [pdf file] The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science, 148, 754-759.

Cohen (1990) [pdf file] Things I have learned (so far). American Psychologist, 45, 1304-1312.

Loftus, G. (1996) [pdf file] Psychology will be a much better science when we change the way we analyze data. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 5, 161-171.

Wickens, T. D. (2002) [pdf file] Elementary Signal Detection Theory. New York: Oxford University Press. [Chap 1; Chap 2 (sections 2.1-2.3); Chap. 3 (sections 3.1-3.3)]

Howell, D.C. (2002). Statistical Methods for Psychology, Chapter 18. Resampling and Nonparametric Approaches to Data (pp. 692-719).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Listing

City council introduces alcohol delivery site
http://deltadiscovery.com/insidebethelnews/insidebethelnews.html
by Shane Iverson
retrieved 10/18/2005

The Bethel City Council narrowly voted in favor of introducing an ordinance aimed at creating a city controlled Alcohol Delivery Site. Ordnance #05-16, titled “Bethel Alcohol Delivery Site,” calls for the City to create a single site for which all alcohol must be imported to and picked up from.

The intention of the bill is to reduce access of alcohol to residents of dry villages, as well as to Bethel residents convicted of violent felonies or other alcohol related crimes. After hearing over 2 hours of public testimony, the City Council voted 4-3 in favor of introducing the ordinance.
….
Voting in favor was Mayor Hugh Dyment, council members Thor Williams, Dan Leinberger and newly-elected council member Mary Kenick. Opposition votes came from council members David Trantham, Andy McGowan and Acting Vice-Mayor Tundy Rodgers.
….
The most common argument was that the availability of alcohol in Bethel and in outlying villages had devastating consequences and ensuring that only responsible Bethel citizens could import alcohol may be part of the solution.
….
Most speakers sited a belief that tighter city controls and monitoring of alcohol importation will reduce crime and other social ails. A similar delivery site in Barrow immediately reduced crime rates by 5%. The region’s high rates of domestic violence, sexual assault, deaths by homicide, suicide and accidents, and Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) were the most common concerns.

Though few believe bootlegging activities would be eradicated, the hope of these citizens was that potential black market dealers will find the business more difficult and less lucrative. “I have heard the bootleggers are very weary that they may be out of business,” commented Sipary in reference to the delivery site.

Members of the Alaska State Troopers and the Bethel Police Department were on hand to support the ordinance. The common sentiment was that they are over-burdened by the current level and nature of crime linked directly to alcohol abuse.
….
All three of the council members who voted against the motion sited the plan had not been sufficiently developed.
….
Mayor Dyment, who introduced the ordinance to the City Council, admitted there is more work to be done before it passes. “I can already think of three amendments to add,” he conceded, but added that by introducing the ordinance the Council can now focus on a more comprehensive plan.

Council member Williams added it is the job of the city manager to develop many of the specific details.
….
Exactly how the city would pay for the delivery site is unclear.
….
“There is no way we know if this is going to work, but we’re never going to know if we don’t try,” concluded Lt. Achee.

Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention
http://alcalc.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/35/6/628

Review Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention.: By Harold Holder. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1999

“Within the community network, certain interacting subsystems have been identified, which are natural groupings of factors that research has shown to be important in the understanding of alcohol use. These are: (1) consumption subsystem: alcohol use as part of routine community life; (2) retail sales subsystem: alcohol availability and promotion; (3) formal regulation and control subsystem: rules, administration, and enforcement; (4) social normals subsystem: community values and social influences that affect drinking; (5) legal sanctions subsystem: prohibitive uses of alcohol; (6) social, economic, and health consequences subsystem: community identification of, and organized responses to, alcohol problems.

A chapter is dedicated to each of these subsystems. Most communities will have some data which can be fed into the analysis, while other elements will be more speculative. In the end, it should be possible for the analyst to predict the outcome of changes to any or indeed all of these subsystems. The arguments advanced are compelling and should encourage those responsible for developing alcohol strategies to look at these components and either develop their own computer model or consult with those already in existence. There are several illustrations of the SimCom simulation in action. A lingering question which remains unanswered is how to establish the credibility of this approach, so that it gains acceptance as part of the routine planning process within a community. Public and political acceptance and support for any system of intervention is crucial and may be hard to achieve particularly when pet theories or Corporate interests are being challenged or threatened. Unfortunately, it may always be easier to pursue familiar pathways, however unrewarding. In Holder’s conclusions, ‘Final Thoughts from a Heretic’, he states that the field of alcohol problem prevention should abandon high risk and target group approaches. ‘We will never purposefully prevent nor substantially reduce alcohol-involved problems by simply treating heavy dependent drinkers’. Likewise identification and targeting of groups within the community, typically young people, will, he believes, result in a similar failure.

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs)
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/543758_print (free registration required)

Diagnosis of Alcohol Dependence, Hugh Myrick, MD
Medscape Psychiatry & Mental Health. 2006;11(2) ©2006 Medscape
retrieved 08/30/2006

Introduction
Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are a subset of substance-related disorders characterized by either recurrent, excessive drinking that impairs function and leads to negative physical, legal, or social sequelae (alcohol abuse); or by physiologic dependence — with associated tolerance and withdrawal — and continued use despite knowledge of the physiologic and social psychological ramifications of continued drinking (alcohol dependence).

AUDs — often collectively termed alcoholism

Was It Alcohol or Anti-Semitism Talking?
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-drinking1aug01,0,7511382.story

Doctors disagree on whether Mel Gibson’s alleged comments reflected actual beliefs.
By Thomas H. Maugh II, LA Times Staff Writer, August 1, 2006

Behavior experts were split Monday on whether the alleged anti-Semitic comments of Mel Gibson were a reflection of his beliefs or simply gibberish induced by intoxication — the alcohol talking, in other words.

Remarks such as those Gibson is alleged to have made are “not a product of alcohol,” … The content of any comments is in a person’s head, “in his opinion structure.”

Others, however, argue that gross intoxication can lead to a free association of ideas that are unrelated to an individual’s true character… “Basically, the person talks gibberish … and can behave in a very bizarre way,” …”They might not even be certain of what they are saying. They don’t understand what they are saying, and they don’t mean what they are saying,” Johnson said.

That argument has persisted in the profession for many years and is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, experts said.

…research has shown that at moderate levels (the legal limit for driving is 0.08% in California), alcohol releases what are known as prepotent responses — beliefs, thoughts and actions that an individual would normally try to suppress.

“Alcohol doesn’t produce new behaviors,” he said. “It releases things that people believe or know…. It exaggerates the personality of the individual.”… There is no shortage of expert opinions on the drinker who is highly intoxicated: Sussman cautioned that some drunks deliberately say things they don’t believe in order to be belligerent or to produce a particular response. [...]

Add this to Bookmarks:

---

Site Search Tags: alcohol, Bethel, Connotea, readings, Chamberlin, multiple+working+hypotheses, hypothesis, city+council, ordinance, legal, tribal+council, BoingBoing, research, evidence, intoxication, experts, latimes, DeltaDiscovery, Medscape, Yukon, Kuskokwim, Unorganized+Borough

Does mass dispensing exercise prove disaster readiness

Here are photos of the mass dispensing clinic in October 2006. Clicking on the photos should take you to the annotated versions. My backlog from Existing timestamp: November 18, 2006 @ 18:39. See previous posts

• Mass dispensing exercise (free flu shots) Oct. 28 -
  http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/10/17/mass-dispensing-exercise-free-flu-shots-oct-28/

• Flu-Season Wealth of Vaccine -
  http://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/10/08/ flu-season-wealth-of-vaccine/

YKHC Messenger, Nov 15, 2006 http://www.ykhc.org/1312.cfm

Mass Dispensing Exercise proves disaster readiness

…More than 750 participants walked through the free flu shot clinic October 28, with more than 600 getting the influenza vaccine….

It took participants on average less than 10 minutes to move through the clinic. Up to four lines at a time were set up for people to sign up, get their vaccine, and move through the clinic as quickly as possible. Staffed with nearly 90 volunteers, the clinic staff tested emergency response procedures that might be needed in an actual emergency.

A review of survey responses from participants found reactions to be overwhelmingly positive, with several instances of people reporting that the clinic was the most organized event they had ever attended in Bethel….

The display ad in the newspaper gave a different number of those who volunteered and went through the clinic. The reported total on radio call-in, October 31, was 700.

I arrived at the mass dispensing clinic a bit after noon. The parking lot was full leading several people to return later thinking there were lines inside. There was just one person ahead of me and a family of 3 or 4 arrived after I did. Through FluWikie’s assistance, I found a “queue theory” algorithm (see “List of Queueing Theory Software”) to calculate the number of lines needed or the number of people who could be processed, also known as a “call center” calculator or “queueing problems that arise in teletraffic analysis”. When I find the one I used (there are several) I’ll revise this post.

I also calculated the proportion of people in Bethel and the surrounding region who were vaccinated (less than 8%). This would be important in identifying if a minimum number of people could receive vaccinations or treatments (such as Tamiflu) if any were available in order to protect the public from a spreading infection. (also for a revised post when I find my notes)

——————————————–

Information located above the heads of most people in a crowd. Plastic plumbing pipe as portable sign posts is good idea. View from inside the gym back towards entrance.

Portable sign posts. I didn’t check to see how easily these are set up and taken down, nor if they can be made of ordinary plumbing pipe or some special kit.

People enter through the single, right-hand door, then are directed by a person, the thin orange tape, and the orange floor cone.

I would like to have seen a test of
1) both doors open. This allows people in line to see more of the novel situation before entering the room. i.e., one can adjust to the situation
*check out who is already there;
*how long the line is;
*where the stations are; more importantly, how the visual field and space is demarcated (pipes cones people)

2) left door open. People are supposed to move left so having that side of their visual field open may tend to draw them into the room and towards that direction.

The tests should be done from the perspective at entrance of the building, too. A wider view allows a person to be drawn towards the open space from the narrower, darker, longer entry hall before one reaches the main room. People hesitated as soon as they entered the building, trying to think about what to do next. Fortunately, there was a person who spotted the hesitation and invited people inside the main room.

—————————————————————

People are coming from the right towards the left. The sign (to left of photo) is designed to be seen above the crowd. However, by having the sign located after the station doesn’t it tend to draw people past the station and towards the sign?

If there is a line backup, wouldn’t it be difficult for people to turn around or go backwards (double-back on the queue or towards the line) in order to get to the station?

The other thing to observe–
how easily can one identify the sequence of stations? i.e., pick out the relevant visual cues (signal ) from the background noise (high ceilings, cones, frames, words on the signs).

how distinct is the relevant information? That is, numbers would seem to be more important than the English word “station” in a mass disaster situation. Can the numbers be seen without looking for them? without thinking about what the sign says? There needs to be consistency between the station signs in their format, font size, decoration.

Why are there different colored aprons or jumpers on non-public (officials)? white, yellow, green

Each non-public person had a name signs hung around the neck. The names were large. However, the cord used tended to make the name sign flip over so it couldn’t be seen. Maybe write on both sides or use a different fastening?

There was significant distance between the sign and the actual station.

————————————————————

————————————————————-

————————————————————–

————————————————————–

The last person to assist people to exit the building is before one gets to the top of the steps behind me. There are no further signs. Even to get this far required an assumption that the unlabelled stairway went somewhere.

Lit by flash unit so without a bright flash, the hallway is dark. The yellow tape blocking passage isn’t very visible in the near background. At the end of the hallway the school’s mesh gate is down.

In the absence of any directions, one woman ahead of me followed the 3 or 4 men ahead of her into the men’s room (entrance is in the left foreground).

There is no telephone. Contrary to the thinking of many, cabs are still the only mode of transportation to a substantial proportion of Bethel residents (and non-residents, who park their boats or snow-gos on the edge of town when visiting from the Villages).

————————————————————–
Your mass disease pass to the non-existing shelter

Add this to Bookmarks:

---

Site Search Tags: backlog, queue, mass+vaccination, YKHC, flu+shot, seasonal+flu, emergency+shelter, pandemic, disaster, readiness, FluWikie

TV panicdemic

We only have 2 TV stations (free ones) out here and one of them, thank goodness, is PBS. The other rotates between the Anchorage commercial stations. Those of you with cable or satellite let me know if civilization as we know it ends.

Published: May 26, 2007

8 P.M. (Hallmark) PANDEMIC (2007) Tiffani Thiessen, left, plays a very good-looking epidemiologist and team leader from the Centers for Disease Control in this three-hour movie about the riptide virus, a fictional deadly bird flu carried from Australia to California by an infected surfer on an airliner. Vincent Spano plays an F.B.I. agent in charge of a drug lord aboard the toxic plane. Eric Roberts is the mayor of Los Angeles. And — step aside, Arnold — Faye Dunaway is the governor of California, who responds to incipient mass hysteria in her state by imposing martial law.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/26/arts/television/26tvcol.html

---

Site Search Tags: television, TV, fiction, martial+law

Add this to Bookmarks: