Connotea references on alcohol, abuse, and prohibition

Tags

analytical anhropology

The issue of whether increased #prohibition would “cure” the Alaska #alcohol problem was in the news in 2005 (and 2015 and ….). [See earlier posts here, https://ykalaska.wordpress.com//?s=alcohol]

The claim was and is that banning alcohol–its sale and possession–would prevent misuse and violence. There is a concomitant argument that peoples “new” to alcohol haven’t learned how to “handle” it, unlike Old World peoples. There is also the argument that Asians or (Alaska) Natives are biologically unable to “hold” their liquor.

Many Alaska communities and authorities argued and argue that only banning alcohol will work. Bethel, Alaska is again arguing the issue. https://www.facebook.com/bumsted/posts/10204895458655382

I decided in 2005 to see what evidence exists for that statement/belief.

The evidence is alcohol abuse is far more complex. Prohibition works only to a point. The Old World has rising rates of binge drinking. People with flush toilets are violent when drunk.

Banning bread making is a desperate measure; people deserve better better decisions.

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Some costs of not using the Alaska PFD and leading by example

Tags

Bumsted, Grassroots Science, Sarah Palin, Unorganized Borough, YKAlaska

Andrew Halcro last week wrote a succinct piece on an all too common tragedy in Alaska and New Mexico.

At first glance it had all the makings of a Hollywood movie set. But this was no Hollywood movie set, it was my front yard on Sand Lake and it was 3am on June 10. For two days, fire and police vehicles were fixtures in my front yard, as the search for a missing canoeist continued. Family members gathered outside my front window, watching and waiting as they held hands, cried and prayed….

One APD officer on the scene told me that these kinds of tragedies are all too frequently due to an unfortunate combination of events. … In this case, the costliest hole was when the two young men launched their canoe at the public access point, they walked right past a newly erected life jacket stand that offered boaters free personal flotations devices.

Alaska initiated the “Kids Don’t Float” program. Fireman Bob Painter of Homer founded the program after a number of children drowned in Homer.

(May 29, 2009, Anchorage, Alaska) – The “Kids Don’t Float” and boating safety programs will continue this summer… Under these boating safety programs, children learn about boating safety in schools, and life jackets are available for loan at many lakes and rivers across Alaska. …Representative Mark Neuman of Wasilla sponsored HB 151 and Governor Palin signed the legislation in May.

Both NM and Alaska rank high in the USA for the prevalence of drownings (the number of deaths divided by the population). Alaska is a semi-arid region with a lot of riparian and coast line; New Mexico is a semi-arid region. Both states share a cultural norm that things go better with alcohol, especially if activities involve an engine (boat, auto, snowmachine). Both states seem to believe “accidents” [not my fault] are always happening but ones with bad consequences only happen to others, the less deserving.

PFDs (personal flotation devices, once referred to as lifevests) are no substitute for sobriety but they can buy time, if properly used. Even without alcohol present, PFDs are valuable. Take a look at these numbers–

http://dnr.alaska.gov/parks/boating/pdf/kdfschool08.pdf
1. Alaska has one of the highest boating fatality rates in the nation
a. at least 6 out of 10 are NOT wearing a life jacket
b. 9 out of 10 involve boats 26 feet and under
c. 5 out of 6 are due to capsizing or falling overboard
d. 8 out of 10 are Alaska residents
e. 9 out of 10 are adult males
f. at least 1 out of 3 involve alcohol
g. nearly all incidents involve cold water immersion

The state law allows adults to endanger themselves, but not underage children.

5. Legal requirements
a. everyone in the boat must have a life jacket of the proper size readily accessible
b. anyone under the age of 13 must be wearing a life jacket when on deck or in an open boat
c. must be suitable for the activity and wearer
1. read the label
d. must be in serviceable condition
1. free of defects (tears, missing zippers, broken buckles)
e. must be USCG-approved

A child’s coloring book encourages children to grow up to remember the law’s requirements.
from http://dnr.alaska.gov/parks/boating/pdf/2006ColoringBook36pgWEB.pdf

PARENTS:
It’s the LAW!
Persons under the age of thirteen
MUST wear their
PFD in an open boat
or on a deck.

Alaskan 8-year old on open boat without PFD

Gov. Sarah Palin issued this proclamation in May to remind all of us that being safe around water, whether or not boating or fishing, is smart and more than the easily remembered “do what you otter around water, wear a pfd”

“WHEREAS, Alaska is blessed with an extensive coastline, millions of lakes, and thousands of rivers, making Alaska’s waters an important part of daily life; and

WHEREAS, our state offers many diverse boating opportunities for transportation, subsistence, and recreation, including kayaking, canoeing, rafting, and power boating; and

WHEREAS, boating can also be dangerous, and often fatal; and

WHEREAS, Alaska’s frigid waters can kill the unprepared, regardless of swimming ability; and

WHEREAS, four out of five of Alaska’s boating fatalities involve a sudden, unexpected capsize or fall overboard; and

WHEREAS, to help prevent accidents or fatalities while boating, boaters can take the simple step of wearing life jackets when in an open boat or on an open boat deck. In an emergency, life jackets provide an important advantage, and allow all efforts to be focused on self-rescue or getting help from others; and

WHEREAS, the newest designs make today’s life jackets more comfortable, functional, and affordable than ever. There is no reason to not wear one; and

WHEREAS, by wearing life jackets while boating, Alaskans demonstrate that when enjoying the outdoors, safety always comes first;

NOW, THEREFORE, I, Sarah Palin, Governor of the state of Alaska, do hereby proclaim May 16-22, 2009 as:

Safe Boating Week

in Alaska, and encourage all boaters to make their boating memories this season good ones by always wearing life jackets, carefully preparing for each trip, carrying appropriate communications and signaling devices, and by serving as a positive example on the water for other boaters.
Dated: May 7, 2009
http://www.gov.state.ak.us/proclamations.php?id=1835

To test a life jacket, lift it at the shoulders. If the life jacket comes up over the ears, it is too big.

Test Alaska child's PFD fit. Will she slip out of unzipped PFD on open boat?

Today comes this tragic reminder of the example set “on the water for other boaters.”

A 56-year-old man drowned in Bristol Bay this morning, the Coast Guard said. He was fishing in an 18-foot skiff with his two teenage daughters when he went overboard while pulling in a net, said Coast Guard spokeswoman Sara Francis. … The accident happened in Togiak Bay around 9 a.m. and a nearby fisherman immediately called for Coast Guard help. The skiff was only 10 to 20 yards from shore but the man was not wearing a life jacket.

http://www.adn.com/money/industries/fishing/story/863256.html

2009-08-11 Very nice picture guide to Alaska Safe Boating Course.

Mahalo!

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Site Search Tags: PFD, Bristol+Bay, children, law, drowning, safety, Palin, preparedness, Kids+Don’t+Float, NM, Alaska

What’s next in AK erosion? Read Katrina’s saga

Tags

Bumsted, Grassroots Science, YKAlaska

The Unorganized Borough can’t wait for others to prepare for us. Why? Track the entries at The Voices of New Orleans, http://www.chinmusicpress.com/books/doyouknow/voices/ especially for the terms FEMA and Army Corps (and for Newtok, Alaska). The archive list of titles is News Archive – http://www.chinmusicpress.com/books/doyouknow/voices/news/ (Unfortunately there is no search function other than your browser’s for titles.)

“While the United States government is immune for legal liability for the defalcations alleged herein, it is not free, nor should it be, from posterity’s judgment concerning its failure to accomplish what was its task,” the judge wrote. “This story — 50 years in the making — is heart-wrenching. Millions of dollars were squandered in building a levee system with respect to these outfall canals which was known to be inadequate by the corps’s own calculations.”

Though the ruling spotlighted many missteps by the corps over the years, it made little of other possible factors, including culpability of former local officials overseeing levees and drainage, and particularly their rejection of the corps’s original plan for floodgates on the drainage canals that so devastated the city. [emphasis added]

http://www.chinmusicpress.com/books/doyouknow/voices/news/ 2008/02/nyt_of_course_the_suit_was_thr.html

2011-02-23 The website no longer exists but maybe the relevant posts exist at the Wayback machine, Excuse Me, but New Orleans is not Newtok, Alaska

Hartford: Safe in ivory tower, prof declares NOLA dead

NYT: Of course the suit was thrown out

Hartford: Safe in ivory tower, prof declares NOLA dead Source: Hartford Courant July 06, 2007 Source: Hartford Courant Here’s another one of those supposed deep thinkers who just wants to lay it on the line. New Orleans as we know it is dead, he says. As dead as the Yukon-Kuskokwim delta. Harumph. Look at my Ph.d. framed nicely on my wall:

“I think he’s saying two main points–
1) sustainable living is living within one’s environmental means. The environment is in constant flux and the cultural response (what people do) ought also be flexible, to adapt. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Rivers delta is a living biocultural system, for example.

2) ethically and morally, wouldn’t barricading NOLA against environmental change in the delta be the same as barricading change in the YK delta? and therefore the billions of dollars required for either delta to rebuild the way it was, bad infrastructure and all, (rather than working with the change) come equally from everyone else?

Now, if the efforts were directed towards living *with* a delta system, the costs over the next 100 years would be considerably less and the resilient cultures even stronger. This isn’t “writing off” the deltas and their people; it’s preserving them.

NOLA is equally entitled to re-build bad design as YK. In fact, the Army Corps would love to fix our delta the same way they fixed yours over the decades. If we “re-build” one delta, then ethically “re-build” the other. We’ll go first.

Posted by: mpb | July 7, 2007 11:45 AM

Thanks for your response. Perhaps you should have written the article. Your points are cogent and I don’t disagree for the most part.

But the professor claims that the people of the Yukon delta aren’t playing the race card when they emphatically are (check out the NYT article linked in the post above this one). The professor is at best ill-informed on the subject. His desire to strip away race and greed and other “secondary” issues in our understanding of the broken levees is horribly misguided. We need to understand all the elements of the problem, not just global warming, because, again, the floods of NOLA could have been prevented.

Rebuilding bad design, as you say, is not a great option. But the Dutch don’t have bad design. Why do we have to?

Posted by: Bruce | July 7, 2007 10:18 PM”
http://web.archive.org/web/20071109080817/www.chinmusicpress.com/books/doyouknow/voices/news/2007/07/hartford_safe_in_ivory_tower_p.html

One remote Alaska village fights to stay alive — and stay put
Jill Burke | Feb 22, 2011 http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/one-remote-alaska-village-fights-stay-alive-and-stay-put

Koyukuk has been unable to secure upgrades to its inadequate sewer system. How did a village along one of Alaska’s Interior river systems suddenly find itself keeping company, at least on paper, with a handful of sea-battered coastal communities imminently at risk of falling into the ocean? Koyukuk Mayor Jason Malemute isn’t sure. But he’s determined to get the place he’s called home nearly all his life off the list of Alaska villages that must be relocated to survive….

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Site Search Tags: NOLA, Katrina, preparedness, self-reliance, lessons+learned, FEMA, Army+Corps, Newtok

Where is… yet another great circle around Bethel

Tags

Bumsted, Grassroots Science, YKAlaska

See previous Where is… another great circle around Bethel

Taken for a ride in Bethel. A lively if faintly condescending L.A. Times report captures the joy of getting around in the Kuskokwim village that is “the unlikely taxicab capital of the United States.” With one driver for every 62 residents, the cabbies “drive circles around other towns,” says the Times. “Well, it’s just one circle: Only 10 miles of road are paved.”

Sound familiar? The Associated Press gave the story a good ride – Taxis on the tundra, Rachel D’Oro, ADN – back in July. [And even earlier, CABBIE TOWN, Doug O’Harra, July 9, 1989, ADN http://tinyurl.com/2fzvde] But the Times piece is a fun read, nicely colored with personalities and a fine sense of place: Bethel cabbies “overhear arguments and lovestruck whispers, they listen to confessions and tall tales and regrets. They pick up children from school. They shuttle travelers to and from the airport. They deliver everything – moose meat, groceries, heavy-machine parts. They chauffeur all-night revelries, wedding parties and sometimes the dead.

“The taxis come in all makes and models, all colors and conditions, from brand new to barely legal. By the end of the day, they all end up looking uniformly Alaskan – that is, covered in a film of silt, slightly beat up but more or less functional.”
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/newsreader/

America’s taxi capital: Bethel, Alaska LA Times article by Tomas Alex Tizon, November 30, 2007, with photos by our own Greg Lincoln, Delta Discovery

click to enlarge

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Site Search Tags: taxi, cab, Bethel, LATimes, Korea, Albania, ADN, great+circle

Castor oil soap and Dettol Lysol

Tags

Bumsted, Grassroots Science, YKAlaska

My apologies for not returning sooner to Mr. M. Manogaran’s interesting query left as a comment at
https://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/05/03/disinfectants-for-camp-field-and-household/ (Scrounging for funds interferes with interesting work.)

Kindly write to the %age proportion of Castor Oil Soap-35% being used to formulate Antiseptic Liquid Like Dettol.

I think the interest is in
* why is there soap in a disinfectant and
* why is the soap made from castor oil?

If I have failed to ask and/or answer your questions correctly please let me know. If anyone can provide additional references or a better discussion, please note in the comments.

Unfortunately, I am not an organic chemist so I can’t give great detail. But here is what I think is the short answer. The soap is used to keep the germicide (cresol or phenol) in solution until it is mixed with water for actual use (the cloudy mixed result indicates the phenol compound becoming suspended rather than dissolved). Soap is made from a fat or oil and an alkali. Castor oil has particular physical properties which make it a good molecule for making the soap to interact with the cresol/phenol molecule.

The liquid concentrate of Dettol ® and brown-bottle Lysol ® are composed of a phenol or cresol compound, alcohols, pine oil (Dettol®) and “other ingredients” which are soap, water, and caramel for coloring. When first introduced to Britain, the formula for Lysol was 50% cresol and the rest liquid soap. Lysol was so important that its commercial formula was legally established in the British Pharmacopoeia and in 1934 court standards “held that Lysol must contain 47 to 53 per cent. of cresols”. [“To use this [fake] article as a disinfectant might be worse than using none at all; its use would give a false feeling of security.”
http://www.rsc.org/delivery/_ArticleLinking/DisplayArticleForFree.cfm?doi=AN9345900691 (pdf file)]

I have added below some references for further examination but in particular the chemical references or databases used for the lay term lysol, Lysol ® and Dettol ®. I have tried at the end to give the identification numbers for the compounds under discussion. These ID numbers, for example the CAS number, are unique to a chemical compound. The use is similar to the binomial scientific name used to specify which of the very many different plants in different cultures that have the same common name.

CAS REGISTRY and CAS Registry Numbers. The CAS REGISTRY is the largest and most current database of chemical substances […] http://www.cas.org/expertise/cascontent/registry/regsys.html

These databases can also be searched for the chemical or toxic properties of other chemicals. The Chemical Abstract Service (CAS) the 100-year old database of the American Chemical Society, is an excellent resource but only available for a fee. There is a comparable US Pharmacopoeia (USP) and a British Pharmacopoeia (BP) but perhaps someone else can locate the Internet links to these databases.

Skip to
• General Notes
• Lysol / Dettol
• Castor oil soap
• Resources (** are especially good to start with)
• Castor oil
• Soap
• Historical
• Lysol Dettol chemistry

===================================

Song to time hand washing for hygiene and disease prevention

Tags

Bumsted, Grassroots Science, YKAlaska

The correct amount of time for washing hands with soap and water is about 20 seconds. In the USA, children know the song Happy Birthday to You. If sung properly two times, it lasts about the correct time period.

Not everyone knows this song, its lyrics and tune. They have come to this site looking for a handwashing song.

The actual birthday song is copyrighted, or was. The Wikipedia article is pretty comprehensive about its history and current status. Fortunately, another, older song to the same tune is in the public domain.

“Good Morning to All” is printed in Song Stories for the Kindergarten, published 1893 (revised edition published 1896). It credited Patty Hill for the lyrics and Mildred Hill for the music.

Good Morning to You lyrics and tune are available from Wikipedia.

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Birthday_to_You

They also have a link to an mp3 (audio) version of the song from a very interesting website about copyright. I think the historic clip maybe a little fast for the requisite timing so sing it twice or three tiems (20 seconds total).

• http://chart.copyrightdata.com/ch13.html

This is a work about copyright law. As such, it discusses the means by which a creator goes about protecting his legal rights to his work. Thus, it should not surprise any reader that this work bears the following notice: The Copyright Registration and Renewal Information Chart and Web Site © 2007 David P. Hayes If you’re here, it might be you want to know whether a particular work is protected by copyright. The several charts on this site can help. To get the most out of this site, you should have the following information close at hand.

Click here for the version of happy birthday in Yup’ik Eskimo (Alaska) Do readers have localized versions that I can link to?

See other posts about hands and handwashing–
Sanitizers — Handwashing
auto handwash timer Squidsoap
My 3 things everyone should know to prevent bird flu (pandemic flu)
Give germs the boot, not our babies: unwashed hands make everyone sick

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Site Search Tags: hands, handwashing, hygiene, Happy+Birthday, song, soap, children

How bad arithmetic can win friends, influence people, and hide the harm

When is a per cent nonsense?

Thursday morning the 27th (tomorrow, 10-11 AM AKT) KYUK radio will have a one-hour call-in show to discuss the ballot measure for the City of Bethel voters. This is an overdue discussion, occurring just in time before next Tuesday’s election.

The ballot measure is called Proposition One. It is the City’s second proposition to be called that, but the first to actually be on the ballot for voting.

The actual proposition is–

CITY OF BETHEL PROPOSITION NO. 1 ONE PERCENT INCREASE IN BETHEL SALES AND USE TAX

Shall the City of Bethel increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percent (total tax of 6%) for a period of 2 years followed by a decrease of a half (.5) percent (total tax 5.5%) which shall sunset on October 2, 2027?

YES

NO

Several of the existing city councillors and the designated mayor, the city attorney, several of those running for city council next Tuesday (but not all), a member of the radio board of directors, the YKHC wellness department, the KYUK news editor, plus others have stated this proposition says a swimming pool will be built out of the 1 cent increase for every dollar spent for food or heating fuel.

How can one consider this proposition prior to voting?

• Q. where do “swimming pool” and “rec center” appear in the proposition?

In fact, nowhere does the proposition say how the City Council will spend the money received. No amount of “we know where the taxes will be spent” can encumber the money for anything the Council doesn’t authorize.

• Q. How much will the new tax be, if approved?

1. increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percent
and
2. (total tax of 6%)

The current sales tax is 5% or 5 cents for every dollar, added to the sales total.

1. An increase in sales tax of 1% (one per cent) converted to decimal form is 0.01 times 0.05 dollars or 0.01 times 5 cents. This equals 5.0005 cents per dollar in sales.

and

2. An increase in total tax to 6% means 1 cent must be added to the existing 5 cents of every dollar. How much is one cent of 5 cents? that is, what percent is one out of 5? A twenty per cent increase in the existing sales tax will equal 6 cents per dollar in sales tax.

Think of this another way. You find the cost of doing business has gone up 20%. You now sell a half-gallon of milk for $5.00. What will the new price of milk be? [20% times $5 = $1.00 Add this to the current price. Therefore $6.00 is the new price]

• Q. How much will the new tax be after two years for the next 18 years, if approved?

1. decrease of a half (.5) percent
and
2. (total tax 5.5%)

The 2009 sales tax will be 5.0005%. A 0.5 per cent equals 0.005 in decimal. The 2010 to 2027 sales tax is ______

and

The 2009 sales tax will be 6.0%. A half per cent equals 0.005 in decimal. The 2010 to 2027 sale tax is _______

If the proposition passes, how much money will go to the swimming pool/rec center?

$________________ but also $______________

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It doesn’t take a college statistics course, like the one the mayor had, to multiply decimals because this is part of primary school arithmetic.

Suppose the proposition had instead been worded–

Shall the City of Bethel increase the sales tax and use tax by one (1) percentage point (from 5 cents per dollar to 6 cents per dollar or total tax rate of 6%) for a period of 2 years followed by a decrease of a half (.5) percentage point (total tax rate of 5.5%) which shall sunset on October 2, 2027?

There would be only one tax increase to be voted on, not two mutually exclusive increases.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There are other issues which should be considered before communal action is taken. Will the proposed action do what is intended or solve the stated problem? Are there better actions to take, including not taking any action? What are the total social, cultural, economic impacts (good or bad) of the proposed action? Do we have the correct problem defined?

The proposition states two different tax increases (1% of the existing rate and from 5% to 6%). Either makes a cost for retailers to re-calibrate their registers. Many other retailers do not use a computer for calculation or have small individual sales (under $100.00). The ordinance would increase the burden to small businesses and/or to residents of Bethel. Retailers would either have to overcharge customers (illegal) or pay the additional tax themselves.

The costs of sales tax processing by the City of Bethel would increase as would the auditing costs of local businesses and the legal pursuit of any delinquent taxes.

The original ordinance proposer (Councilor Leinberger) should have specified the annual (years 1 through 20)
* increase in revenues to be expected, including the projected population and economic condition
* increase in costs to the City
* increase in costs to the retailers (small and large)
* increase in cost of living to the consumer

The proposed tax increase will not go to a swimming pool. But if the increase in sales tax was tagged specifically to the operation and maintenance of a swimming pool and structure for 20 years, the total cost analysis of the pool/rec center must also be included for consideration (sustainability plus total costs to consumers). Would an increase to 5.005% even cover the costs of implementing the tax? Part of this analysis needs to examine the change in demographics for the next 20 years. We’ve lost over 600 people (out migration) in the past 12 months.

Are we even sure a tax increase, of whichever size the courts decide on, is important enough to charge the elderly, the fixed income, and the poor? We currently have double-digit unemployment (this figure only counts those registered for unemployment locally, not the additional people who don’t have unemployment benefits).

For example, adult proponents of the tax increases say the money is needed for a swimming pool rec center (in addition to the schools’ gyms, the cultural center, the youth center, and the library. We also have a home-grown small business fitness center.) so children have something to do to keep them off the streets. Not too long ago, the 4-H centennial project was for young people to identify the greatest needs in their community. When the youngsters spoke among themselves they expressed the overwhelming need for “safe houses”, places to go with sober adult supervision when home got to be too much.

Another reason given for the pool tax was to encourage new families to move to Bethel. The city already disbanded elder services. For over a decade we’ve been promised an assisted living home for our people to age in place, at home, instead of in Anchorage where one can die unattended even by staff. Would you move on the basis of wishful thinking? Yes, many people do. But don’t we deserve better, a genuine sustainable community instead of the one we wish we had?

Your turn. Add your 2 cents worth–

• Please find any arithmetic errors I made above.
• How would you have worded the sales tax proposition for honest assessment by voters?
• Are there any projects you think deserve a sales tax increase? What would you propose?

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Site Search Tags: CoB, Bethel, Alaska, KYUK, election, elders, cost+of+living

Alcohol topics backlog

I think the issue of alcohol and alcohol control in the Unorganized Borough is very important. It is also an issue which has had very little comprehensive analysis and evaluation by communities. It is not yet a major focus of the discussions here because no one has wanted to pursue this. I have, however, been adding references to Connotea, the On-line health environment (biocultural science and adaptation) bibliography [or see the feed in the sidebar] for others to examine.

I also run across items to post here that may be of interest. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to fully develop them as topics (as they deserve) so here is a listing from my backlog. [skip to Listing ]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IMHO [My opinion, for what it’s worth]
In all the time that I have lived in the Unorganized Borough, it seems we have policy, politics, and governance based upon “I know what’s best” that is, based upon belief and not evidence. See earlier discussions linked at

http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/pay-for-performance/
What is supposed to work in schools, similarly with alcohol control and Wall Street, seems to operate on belief rather than an examination of what is and then formulating testable ideas on what, if anything, needs doing. Belief is an important factor in “what works”. However, critical thinking and careful use of statistics, among other attributes of sciencing such as multiple working hypotheses, are important to keep us all honest. In the situation of pandemic fatal or crippling disease, wishful thinking or “denial” won’t keep us, at all.

and
Evaluate alternative actions https://ykalaska.wordpress.com/2006/07/26/ evaluate-alternative-actions/

and

a strong new current in American life — the culture of assertion, which increasingly pushes logical argument out of our public conversation. According to this schema, things are true because I believe they are true and you have to respect that, because it’s what I believe…. Tim Rutten, quoted here

and

The irresistible power of magical thinking
New research demonstrates that habits of so-called magical thinking — the belief, for instance, that wishing harm on a loathed colleague or relative might make him sick — are far more common than people acknowledge.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/24/healthscience/snmag.php
http://www.boingboing.net/2007/01/23/psychology_of_magica.html

There’s no better example than the City of Bethel proposing alcohol sales as a means of getting the city out of its deep money troubles (oh, and alleviating problems related to alcohol consumption).

Instead, there are proven methods for thinking about issues which can set aside the self-centered emotional displays and ad hominem attacks in order to generate evidence for and against a proposed action or decision. One method is to set about disproving a “negative hypothesis”. It is easier to find cases which disprove a hypothesis. In addition, if one works hard to disprove the opposite idea to what one actually wants, it is easier not to play favorites.

I would like to see someone test this null hypothesis (come up with evidence against):

H₀: Alcohol abuse is socially acceptable in Bethel and the Y-K Delta

Look for evidence such as the radio station’s playlists (how many songs about drinking, drunkenness, looking for “girls” despite our high rate of child abuse); joking; number of employees and salaries at Yukon Kuskokwim Health Corp. that deal directly (behavioral health) or indirectly (emergency room, community health aides, clerks, dentists) with alcohol abuse; number of employees, salaries, and costs associated with the correctional and judicial system; number of police and state troopers stationed and salaries and equipment; number of times “I was intoxicated” is used for mitigating circumstances; number of times people use “drinking” in the same sentence as “party”; number of times people who don’t drink allow those who are into their house; number of missions and church workers who deal directly or indirectly; number of school district employees and salaries who deal directly (counselors) and indirectly (teachers); et al.; number of grants and overhead that deal directly or indirectly; etc.

Additional Readings: (My complete list of Readings for Sciencing is also trapped in the backlog. But I promise that will be next. http://13c4.wordpress.com/2007/08/04/readings-for-quantitative-analysis-and-interpretation/)

Platt (1964) [pdf file] Strong inference. Science, 146, 347-353.

Chamberlin, TC (1965) [pdf file] The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science, 148, 754-759.

Cohen (1990) [pdf file] Things I have learned (so far). American Psychologist, 45, 1304-1312.

Loftus, G. (1996) [pdf file] Psychology will be a much better science when we change the way we analyze data. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 5, 161-171.

Wickens, T. D. (2002) [pdf file] Elementary Signal Detection Theory. New York: Oxford University Press. [Chap 1; Chap 2 (sections 2.1-2.3); Chap. 3 (sections 3.1-3.3)]

Howell, D.C. (2002). Statistical Methods for Psychology, Chapter 18. Resampling and Nonparametric Approaches to Data (pp. 692-719).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Listing

City council introduces alcohol delivery site
http://deltadiscovery.com/insidebethelnews/insidebethelnews.html
by Shane Iverson
retrieved 10/18/2005

The Bethel City Council narrowly voted in favor of introducing an ordinance aimed at creating a city controlled Alcohol Delivery Site. Ordnance #05-16, titled “Bethel Alcohol Delivery Site,” calls for the City to create a single site for which all alcohol must be imported to and picked up from.

The intention of the bill is to reduce access of alcohol to residents of dry villages, as well as to Bethel residents convicted of violent felonies or other alcohol related crimes. After hearing over 2 hours of public testimony, the City Council voted 4-3 in favor of introducing the ordinance.
….
Voting in favor was Mayor Hugh Dyment, council members Thor Williams, Dan Leinberger and newly-elected council member Mary Kenick. Opposition votes came from council members David Trantham, Andy McGowan and Acting Vice-Mayor Tundy Rodgers.
….
The most common argument was that the availability of alcohol in Bethel and in outlying villages had devastating consequences and ensuring that only responsible Bethel citizens could import alcohol may be part of the solution.
….
Most speakers sited a belief that tighter city controls and monitoring of alcohol importation will reduce crime and other social ails. A similar delivery site in Barrow immediately reduced crime rates by 5%. The region’s high rates of domestic violence, sexual assault, deaths by homicide, suicide and accidents, and Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) were the most common concerns.

Though few believe bootlegging activities would be eradicated, the hope of these citizens was that potential black market dealers will find the business more difficult and less lucrative. “I have heard the bootleggers are very weary that they may be out of business,” commented Sipary in reference to the delivery site.

Members of the Alaska State Troopers and the Bethel Police Department were on hand to support the ordinance. The common sentiment was that they are over-burdened by the current level and nature of crime linked directly to alcohol abuse.
….
All three of the council members who voted against the motion sited the plan had not been sufficiently developed.
….
Mayor Dyment, who introduced the ordinance to the City Council, admitted there is more work to be done before it passes. “I can already think of three amendments to add,” he conceded, but added that by introducing the ordinance the Council can now focus on a more comprehensive plan.

Council member Williams added it is the job of the city manager to develop many of the specific details.
….
Exactly how the city would pay for the delivery site is unclear.
….
“There is no way we know if this is going to work, but we’re never going to know if we don’t try,” concluded Lt. Achee.

Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention
http://alcalc.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/35/6/628

Review Alcohol and the Community: A Systems Approach to Prevention.: By Harold Holder. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1999

“Within the community network, certain interacting subsystems have been identified, which are natural groupings of factors that research has shown to be important in the understanding of alcohol use. These are: (1) consumption subsystem: alcohol use as part of routine community life; (2) retail sales subsystem: alcohol availability and promotion; (3) formal regulation and control subsystem: rules, administration, and enforcement; (4) social normals subsystem: community values and social influences that affect drinking; (5) legal sanctions subsystem: prohibitive uses of alcohol; (6) social, economic, and health consequences subsystem: community identification of, and organized responses to, alcohol problems.

A chapter is dedicated to each of these subsystems. Most communities will have some data which can be fed into the analysis, while other elements will be more speculative. In the end, it should be possible for the analyst to predict the outcome of changes to any or indeed all of these subsystems. The arguments advanced are compelling and should encourage those responsible for developing alcohol strategies to look at these components and either develop their own computer model or consult with those already in existence. There are several illustrations of the SimCom simulation in action. A lingering question which remains unanswered is how to establish the credibility of this approach, so that it gains acceptance as part of the routine planning process within a community. Public and political acceptance and support for any system of intervention is crucial and may be hard to achieve particularly when pet theories or Corporate interests are being challenged or threatened. Unfortunately, it may always be easier to pursue familiar pathways, however unrewarding. In Holder’s conclusions, ‘Final Thoughts from a Heretic’, he states that the field of alcohol problem prevention should abandon high risk and target group approaches. ‘We will never purposefully prevent nor substantially reduce alcohol-involved problems by simply treating heavy dependent drinkers’. Likewise identification and targeting of groups within the community, typically young people, will, he believes, result in a similar failure.

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs)
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/543758_print (free registration required)

Diagnosis of Alcohol Dependence, Hugh Myrick, MD
Medscape Psychiatry & Mental Health. 2006;11(2) ©2006 Medscape
retrieved 08/30/2006

Introduction
Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are a subset of substance-related disorders characterized by either recurrent, excessive drinking that impairs function and leads to negative physical, legal, or social sequelae (alcohol abuse); or by physiologic dependence — with associated tolerance and withdrawal — and continued use despite knowledge of the physiologic and social psychological ramifications of continued drinking (alcohol dependence).

AUDs — often collectively termed alcoholism

Was It Alcohol or Anti-Semitism Talking?
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-drinking1aug01,0,7511382.story

Doctors disagree on whether Mel Gibson’s alleged comments reflected actual beliefs.
By Thomas H. Maugh II, LA Times Staff Writer, August 1, 2006

Behavior experts were split Monday on whether the alleged anti-Semitic comments of Mel Gibson were a reflection of his beliefs or simply gibberish induced by intoxication — the alcohol talking, in other words.

Remarks such as those Gibson is alleged to have made are “not a product of alcohol,” … The content of any comments is in a person’s head, “in his opinion structure.”

Others, however, argue that gross intoxication can lead to a free association of ideas that are unrelated to an individual’s true character… “Basically, the person talks gibberish … and can behave in a very bizarre way,” …”They might not even be certain of what they are saying. They don’t understand what they are saying, and they don’t mean what they are saying,” Johnson said.

That argument has persisted in the profession for many years and is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, experts said.

…research has shown that at moderate levels (the legal limit for driving is 0.08% in California), alcohol releases what are known as prepotent responses — beliefs, thoughts and actions that an individual would normally try to suppress.

“Alcohol doesn’t produce new behaviors,” he said. “It releases things that people believe or know…. It exaggerates the personality of the individual.”… There is no shortage of expert opinions on the drinker who is highly intoxicated: Sussman cautioned that some drunks deliberately say things they don’t believe in order to be belligerent or to produce a particular response. […]

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Airport tip line to report bootleggers, Fairbanks

…A tip line geared toward busting bootleggers has heightened the police presence at Fairbanks International Airport, where the police chief hopes to curb the flow of booze and drugs being sneaked into rural Alaska by passengers on small airlines.

The toll-free line, (877) TIP4FIA [(877) 847-4342], was established in late April and is credited with nearly doubling the number of contacts officers make with passengers suspected of carrying illegal cargo, said Officer Robert Dickerson…

• http://newsminer.com/2007/06/27/7660

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Barrow heat island

Ned Rozell is a science writer at the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks.

While trolling the poster sessions at the Moscone Center in San Francisco during the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting — attended by more than 13,000 scientists — a person bumps into a great deal of information on Alaska.

Here are some notes from the legal pad:

• A scientist who has monitored temperatures in and around Barrow since 2001 has found that the “urban” area of Barrow averages 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the surrounding tundra in the winter and is sometimes 6 degrees warmer.

Ken Hinkel of the University of Cincinnati documented Barrow’s “heat island” with 70 instruments that have recorded temperatures in and around Barrow once an hour since 2001.

He wanted to see if man-made warmth in Barrow had anything to do with the fact that the snowmelt date at Barrow is now three weeks earlier than it was in the 1940s.

Researchers have found heat islands in many other cities in America, but Hinkel said that Barrow is different because there are few vehicles there, which means that most of the heat measured must be escaping from buildings in winter.

He also said Barrow’s heat island disappears when there are high winds, and that the town’s heat island probably results in an 8 percent reduction in fuel bills during winter.

As for the warmth generated by Barrow residents affecting the earlier snowmelt date, he said it was unlikely because the heat island is not as strong when the area’s snowpack is melting in the spring.

• http://www.adn.com/life/story/8579468p-8472486c.html

You can see Bethel’s changed microclimate here. Where is Y-K Alaska (Google map)
The area inside the ring of Bethel has been altered from the non-Bethel region. There are no regular roads or housing inside the ring. But certainly the road dust, sno-go traffic, surrounding development has affected this reflectivity of the ground.

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